***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.7 45.8 61.4 40.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.5 5.2 4.3 49.5 55.6 38.1 1.0 4.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 1.4 13.3 4.0 49.7 61.2 40.1 0.5 4.5 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 2.1 28.3 5.3 82.1 74.1 48.7 1.1 5.4 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 1.4 14.8 4.8 73.4 71.8 46.9 0.3 3.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.0 23.3 8.0 109.6 77.0 52.3 0.7 7.0 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.9 10.9 4.6 50.9 59.4 39.7 1.7 7.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.1 22.4 5.4 86.9 69.1 46.6 3.0 10.5 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 0.7 12.2 4.5 63.6 65.3 45.3 0.2 1.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.7 15.1 5.4 70.5 64.4 44.7 0.6 6.7 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 1.1 24.5 3.9 72.0 70.9 46.2 0.6 2.8 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 0.9 20.8 4.1 95.6 74.2 48.0 0.0 2.0 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.4 17.1 5.5 108.2 77.2 51.6 0.4 2.8 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 3.8 11.9 6.0 66.9 56.6 41.5 1.9 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.8 13.7 4.9 86.1 78.6 52.0 0.8 6.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.1 11.1 5.1 98.1 75.3 50.6 0.3 2.5 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.6 8.3 4.4 51.9 55.7 36.9 2.8 7.2 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 2.2 9.5 7.1 76.3 61.9 44.1 2.3 6.1 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.4 9.5 4.3 52.0 56.4 38.5 1.9 7.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.8 14.3 8.5 97.2 66.2 47.7 3.4 8.3 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.4 14.4 3.7 56.1 66.3 43.9 0.5 8.6 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.1 13.2 4.4 54.2 54.3 36.4 3.9 7.0 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 1.8 11.7 4.7 58.6 59.8 40.7 1.4 4.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.7 12.1 5.7 64.7 59.4 42.3 1.2 10.4 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.7 19.5 5.1 61.8 70.0 44.3 0.1 7.6 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.2 22.5 4.4 123.7 76.5 53.6 1.6 6.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 1.7 8.0 4.9 53.2 63.1 42.3 1.8 4.5 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.3 26.2 5.4 93.7 76.5 51.8 2.2 5.6 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 5.9 23.1 7.4 79.9 62.5 44.2 8.8 14.6 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.9 7.1 4.2 48.1 57.8 38.8 3.2 5.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------