***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 9.7 133.4 78.0 54.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 19.3 10.0 148.9 77.3 52.3 2.2 6.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.1 15.3 10.2 143.0 77.4 54.3 1.1 7.2 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.0 24.4 10.5 143.5 81.6 57.5 0.5 4.2 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 1.3 26.1 10.8 147.8 82.9 58.2 0.9 2.6 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 10.8 13.2 14.9 139.4 74.1 58.5 1.4 3.9 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.4 16.8 10.0 142.7 78.4 52.7 0.8 3.6 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 13.0 10.9 118.2 67.9 53.8 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 0.5 20.6 11.3 143.4 83.8 56.3 0.1 1.0 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.8 17.8 12.5 130.2 75.0 55.6 0.9 3.9 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 0.7 17.0 8.9 129.2 76.1 54.6 0.2 1.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.8 16.7 8.1 120.8 70.7 54.1 0.0 2.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 1.9 5.5 10.8 141.0 76.8 57.8 0.0 0.6 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.0 23.7 13.5 140.0 75.7 55.8 1.1 4.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.9 14.5 8.0 126.1 77.6 56.5 0.5 1.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.8 10.4 9.9 133.9 74.9 56.1 0.8 2.5 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.8 11.3 10.1 144.7 76.0 51.4 2.0 3.8 8.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 22.1 15.7 129.0 73.4 56.2 0.8 4.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.0 19.8 10.1 155.2 78.2 53.3 1.7 5.8 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.8 9.2 15.5 119.8 66.3 54.2 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 5.0 20.2 10.0 141.8 82.7 57.1 0.1 2.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.0 15.0 10.0 148.7 76.3 52.8 1.5 4.0 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.0 17.8 10.7 157.6 80.2 54.8 0.6 7.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.3 15.2 13.4 133.8 75.3 55.9 0.8 4.9 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.4 27.6 11.7 138.7 80.8 56.2 1.0 6.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 1.4 6.1 8.0 143.6 79.2 60.2 0.0 0.3 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.7 16.2 11.3 132.6 76.7 54.9 1.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.4 17.5 9.7 139.3 79.9 58.2 0.4 2.8 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.5 22.2 16.1 127.0 70.7 56.2 4.5 11.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.7 18.2 10.0 146.6 76.9 53.4 1.2 4.3 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------