***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 9.0 81.1 57.6 46.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.9 9.4 74.3 55.6 44.9 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.1 8.0 9.3 81.9 60.2 46.4 2.1 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.4 8.3 78.4 59.2 49.9 3.1 11.0 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.8 10.8 8.2 76.9 58.9 48.6 4.4 8.8 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.0 17.5 11.8 82.0 60.0 50.3 3.9 8.7 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.0 9.8 76.2 52.9 43.6 2.7 5.1 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 30.6 28.9 9.8 80.1 54.2 45.0 16.3 26.9 37.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.9 8.4 71.3 56.1 45.0 4.3 7.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.2 16.7 10.0 74.9 54.3 44.5 7.8 15.0 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.9 7.2 75.8 56.5 46.5 2.8 10.8 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 20.0 23.2 7.4 82.2 58.9 45.5 7.3 16.5 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.2 16.1 8.6 82.1 59.5 49.1 5.4 10.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.3 9.8 11.4 75.0 52.6 42.4 5.9 9.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.9 7.9 88.1 65.4 53.6 1.3 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.6 7.6 76.5 56.9 47.8 5.2 13.0 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.5 6.2 8.8 68.7 53.3 44.1 3.1 5.8 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.9 18.6 12.4 75.4 52.2 43.0 11.4 18.1 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.6 9.6 9.2 73.6 55.8 44.9 5.1 9.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 8.0 14.9 13.6 80.2 47.6 43.5 11.0 15.4 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.5 10.5 7.8 74.4 56.4 47.0 4.9 9.5 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.0 9.3 8.2 64.8 52.1 41.7 2.8 9.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.8 11.8 9.0 71.2 53.9 43.3 4.1 10.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.6 14.0 11.0 75.9 55.1 43.3 6.8 11.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.0 10.3 84.5 59.7 48.9 2.4 6.7 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.4 12.0 7.8 101.7 69.4 52.2 4.1 8.4 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.6 10.7 86.1 61.3 47.9 3.1 6.6 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.5 7.7 78.8 60.4 51.0 1.5 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.8 18.3 13.0 77.0 51.3 42.5 13.8 18.3 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.0 9.8 79.1 58.0 45.3 3.1 6.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------