***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.4 54.2 37.1 34.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 5.5 6.1 7.6 57.0 38.8 35.7 4.8 11.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 5.2 5.4 7.2 53.9 41.2 34.8 3.7 11.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 2.0 3.9 5.6 43.6 33.6 29.3 3.8 5.0 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.6 2.7 5.5 41.7 36.3 29.1 2.2 7.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 2.0 1.1 5.2 40.1 30.2 26.9 1.7 5.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 8.0 8.9 7.7 60.9 39.0 36.7 6.6 16.2 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 7.3 8.6 5.7 40.2 30.5 27.8 9.2 14.9 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.4 2.7 6.2 44.8 39.4 30.6 2.0 6.4 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 5.1 5.5 6.6 43.0 32.4 28.7 5.6 12.8 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.9 3.7 4.4 35.5 31.6 26.6 4.3 6.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 3.1 4.2 4.1 34.2 30.0 26.3 4.9 9.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 1.4 0.6 3.6 29.4 21.3 20.9 3.3 5.3 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.6 6.9 8.3 56.1 42.3 33.2 5.5 13.9 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 0.8 0.9 4.9 42.6 37.5 31.3 0.7 2.2 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 3.0 3.1 4.0 32.9 26.8 24.2 3.6 6.4 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.6 6.6 8.3 65.6 46.5 39.3 4.0 7.7 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 5.1 8.0 7.8 46.4 32.3 28.9 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.8 6.1 7.6 55.5 38.3 34.6 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 4.2 7.6 7.0 43.7 32.0 27.7 7.8 11.9 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.4 8.6 6.5 48.0 41.4 33.4 2.9 8.9 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 4.8 8.3 8.3 62.3 44.4 36.8 3.6 11.5 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 5.5 7.4 7.8 57.7 42.3 33.8 5.8 9.6 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 4.2 8.4 7.9 51.8 37.5 32.1 6.8 10.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.7 3.5 6.8 45.9 33.6 30.9 3.2 9.0 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 1.4 2.1 3.1 26.8 22.9 21.3 3.2 5.4 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 5.1 5.3 7.8 51.6 34.9 32.7 4.4 11.9 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 1.2 1.6 4.9 40.9 34.1 29.1 1.5 3.5 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 5.2 11.2 7.5 45.0 30.9 27.6 11.3 18.0 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 6.3 7.1 7.3 54.6 37.8 34.3 6.5 9.3 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------