***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 9999.0 0.0 30.9 2.3 90.8 82.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 29.9 31.1 31.2 2.7 94.9 86.1 27.8 28.6 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 29.5 30.7 31.3 2.6 91.3 84.7 27.7 28.5 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 22.4 22.9 29.0 1.6 80.5 74.4 21.3 21.7 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 30.1 30.7 29.3 1.9 84.9 78.2 28.4 29.3 29.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 28.3 28.8 26.7 1.6 83.2 76.5 27.2 27.9 28.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 29.7 30.8 30.8 2.4 93.4 84.4 27.8 28.5 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 17.7 18.3 27.5 2.1 86.7 80.3 16.6 17.0 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 29.6 30.6 29.8 2.2 88.9 81.0 27.8 28.9 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 29.3 30.3 28.3 2.2 88.2 80.6 27.6 28.6 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 29.7 30.6 29.0 2.1 87.5 80.8 27.8 28.6 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 28.6 29.7 28.8 2.2 87.7 81.5 27.0 27.7 28.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 29.9 30.5 28.3 2.0 86.1 79.9 28.1 29.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 29.0 29.9 28.9 2.0 88.5 78.9 27.6 28.2 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 30.4 30.7 29.9 1.5 80.2 74.1 29.5 29.8 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 30.8 31.2 28.7 1.9 85.2 78.6 28.8 30.0 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 29.2 30.4 30.4 2.3 93.7 83.9 27.2 27.7 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 28.1 29.4 27.2 2.1 88.3 79.3 26.9 27.4 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 29.2 30.4 31.4 2.8 95.3 86.9 27.4 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 24.1 24.7 25.2 2.0 86.9 79.3 22.7 23.2 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 29.7 30.7 30.5 2.2 88.5 80.5 28.1 28.8 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 29.6 30.7 30.3 2.3 93.9 83.2 27.5 28.3 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 29.4 30.4 31.1 2.8 94.2 86.6 27.5 28.2 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 29.0 29.7 29.0 2.2 88.9 80.3 27.2 28.0 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 30.0 30.3 29.2 1.8 83.8 77.2 28.2 29.1 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 29.2 29.7 28.2 1.8 84.0 78.3 28.1 28.4 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 29.2 30.0 29.8 2.0 87.5 79.3 27.7 28.3 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 30.5 30.9 29.4 1.4 78.9 72.9 29.5 29.8 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 23.8 24.5 26.2 2.0 87.0 78.8 22.2 22.7 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 29.5 30.5 31.4 2.7 93.9 86.0 27.9 28.4 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------