***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 29.0 -0.1 55.3 50.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 26.7 29.5 29.3 0.3 57.6 53.1 28.0 29.0 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 26.4 29.3 29.3 0.1 56.2 51.5 28.3 29.1 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 20.4 21.9 27.5 -0.5 45.4 45.8 21.1 22.1 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 28.1 29.7 27.5 -0.4 45.3 47.6 28.2 30.1 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 26.7 28.0 25.4 0.0 51.6 50.1 27.0 28.0 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 26.5 29.1 29.0 0.1 54.2 51.2 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 15.7 17.3 25.8 -0.1 51.9 49.6 16.3 17.3 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 27.6 28.9 27.7 -0.2 46.0 48.8 27.5 29.6 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 27.1 28.6 26.3 -0.2 48.5 48.8 27.4 28.8 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 27.4 29.5 27.2 -0.1 50.6 50.6 27.9 29.5 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 26.6 28.3 27.1 0.0 53.4 51.4 26.9 28.2 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 27.6 29.7 26.6 0.0 51.8 51.0 27.8 29.4 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 26.9 28.6 26.9 -0.3 47.8 47.8 27.7 28.7 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 28.6 30.2 28.4 -0.3 51.8 47.2 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 28.6 30.5 27.0 -0.1 50.7 49.8 28.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 26.0 28.6 28.7 0.1 52.3 51.0 27.4 28.3 29.8 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 26.1 27.7 25.3 -0.3 48.7 47.5 27.0 27.8 29.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 26.4 28.6 29.4 0.3 58.4 53.8 27.5 28.4 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 21.4 23.0 23.3 -0.3 51.7 47.8 22.3 23.0 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 27.2 29.5 28.6 -0.2 49.0 48.7 28.0 29.5 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 26.7 28.8 28.6 0.0 48.9 50.1 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 26.9 29.0 29.1 0.3 57.1 53.3 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 26.6 28.6 27.0 -0.2 49.2 48.4 27.3 28.6 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 27.4 29.4 27.4 -0.4 47.5 46.9 28.3 29.4 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 27.7 28.9 26.8 -0.2 50.1 49.1 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 26.2 28.9 28.0 -0.3 49.9 47.8 28.0 28.9 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 28.7 30.0 27.9 -0.5 46.8 45.9 29.5 30.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 21.2 22.9 24.1 -0.4 48.0 46.7 22.3 23.0 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 26.4 29.5 29.5 0.3 58.1 53.1 27.9 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------