***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 9999.0 0.0 30.4 2.9 85.8 79.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 29.7 31.4 30.6 3.2 87.5 80.4 26.5 27.5 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 29.9 31.5 30.8 3.3 88.4 80.6 26.3 27.3 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 22.6 23.2 28.9 2.4 78.3 74.1 19.4 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 29.9 31.8 29.0 2.8 83.8 77.2 26.9 27.5 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 28.5 29.7 26.9 2.7 84.0 77.2 25.2 26.6 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 29.6 31.2 30.3 2.9 85.3 78.6 26.7 27.5 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 17.5 18.9 27.5 3.1 87.4 78.6 14.7 16.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 29.5 31.7 29.4 3.1 86.8 79.0 26.7 27.1 28.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 29.2 30.6 28.0 3.1 86.6 78.5 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 29.3 31.3 28.8 3.1 88.3 79.4 26.5 27.4 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 28.4 30.2 28.8 3.3 89.2 80.1 25.8 26.5 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 29.7 31.0 28.2 3.1 85.7 79.6 26.8 27.8 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 29.1 30.2 28.3 2.6 80.5 74.8 26.4 26.9 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 30.3 31.2 29.6 2.3 80.0 74.2 27.7 28.5 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 30.2 31.5 28.6 2.9 83.7 78.3 27.3 28.6 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 29.1 30.2 29.8 2.7 83.3 77.2 25.7 27.2 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 28.3 29.9 27.0 3.0 84.7 77.3 25.2 26.1 27.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 29.3 30.8 30.8 3.4 88.9 81.0 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 23.9 25.6 25.0 3.0 87.5 77.2 21.0 22.0 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 29.7 31.9 30.1 3.0 86.1 78.7 26.4 27.2 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 29.3 30.6 29.7 2.7 84.7 76.9 26.3 27.7 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 29.7 31.0 30.6 3.4 89.1 80.4 26.1 27.0 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 29.0 30.5 28.6 3.0 84.0 77.4 25.9 26.5 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 30.1 31.1 28.8 2.6 80.8 75.7 26.9 28.0 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 29.0 30.5 28.3 2.9 84.7 78.3 26.4 27.2 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 29.6 30.8 29.3 2.6 82.2 76.5 25.9 27.4 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 30.5 31.5 29.2 2.3 78.7 73.7 27.6 28.4 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 23.4 25.1 25.9 2.9 84.1 76.5 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 29.5 31.2 30.8 3.3 88.5 80.9 26.3 27.4 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------