***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 1 99 100 9999.0 0.0 33.3 4.9 99.0 95.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 29.9 34.2 33.7 5.4 99.6 96.2 27.4 28.6 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 30.2 34.8 33.8 5.3 98.2 95.7 27.3 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 23.6 27.4 30.7 3.9 95.3 90.5 20.6 21.6 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 31.5 34.9 31.5 4.3 95.9 92.9 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 29.8 30.7 28.1 3.4 90.2 87.9 25.8 27.9 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 29.8 33.2 33.1 4.9 99.2 95.3 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 18.6 22.8 29.6 4.4 95.5 92.5 15.5 16.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 30.5 34.3 32.5 4.7 96.2 94.1 27.2 28.4 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 30.1 33.2 30.7 4.7 96.0 93.6 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 30.8 34.1 31.2 4.3 95.5 92.3 27.5 28.9 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 29.6 33.5 30.7 4.4 95.1 92.5 26.5 27.6 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 31.3 34.4 30.5 4.3 93.8 92.4 27.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 29.4 34.3 31.6 4.5 97.0 92.7 27.3 28.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 31.3 33.5 32.1 3.5 92.4 88.8 27.9 29.9 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 31.9 34.7 30.8 4.1 94.7 91.8 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 29.3 32.2 32.6 4.8 98.5 94.5 26.7 27.5 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 29.6 33.1 29.7 4.7 96.7 93.5 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 29.4 34.0 33.9 5.7 99.7 96.5 27.1 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 25.3 30.0 27.6 4.6 97.1 93.7 21.5 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 30.3 35.1 33.1 4.6 96.1 93.3 27.6 28.4 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 29.9 33.6 32.5 4.7 98.6 94.2 27.4 28.5 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 29.9 34.3 33.8 5.6 99.3 96.2 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 29.4 33.0 31.6 4.6 96.8 93.4 27.0 27.7 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 30.5 33.8 31.5 4.1 96.6 92.3 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 30.4 34.2 30.0 4.2 93.5 91.1 27.3 28.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 30.0 33.9 32.0 4.2 98.2 93.5 26.8 28.2 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 31.6 33.9 31.1 3.5 91.8 88.1 28.6 29.8 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 24.9 29.7 28.9 4.7 97.2 93.6 21.6 22.5 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 29.9 33.3 33.9 5.4 99.5 96.3 27.1 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------