***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 9999.0 0.0 20.2 2.0 96.6 91.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 16.8 17.3 20.3 2.2 96.2 93.4 15.2 15.7 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 18.6 19.2 20.3 2.2 96.9 93.0 17.3 17.7 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 13.8 14.2 17.8 1.2 86.7 81.3 12.5 13.0 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 15.0 15.6 17.8 1.4 91.1 85.3 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 13.5 14.4 15.7 1.2 88.9 82.7 12.6 13.0 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 16.8 17.5 20.3 2.0 95.4 91.7 15.5 16.1 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 9.2 10.0 15.8 1.5 93.2 86.8 7.9 8.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 16.2 16.9 18.2 1.7 94.4 88.0 15.0 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 15.9 16.8 16.5 1.5 93.8 87.1 14.9 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 15.8 16.7 17.4 1.6 95.4 88.3 14.7 15.0 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 13.8 14.7 16.8 1.6 95.5 89.0 12.6 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 14.9 15.7 16.2 1.4 92.2 86.7 13.8 14.2 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 16.7 17.2 17.9 1.6 92.9 87.4 15.5 16.4 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 17.4 17.7 18.9 1.2 86.6 81.0 16.0 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 16.2 17.2 17.0 1.4 91.8 86.1 15.0 15.7 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 17.1 17.9 19.6 1.8 94.9 91.3 16.1 16.4 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 14.7 15.1 15.5 1.4 92.7 86.1 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 16.4 17.1 20.4 2.3 96.9 94.5 15.4 15.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 10.5 11.0 13.7 1.4 91.7 84.9 8.9 9.5 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 16.2 16.7 19.3 1.8 94.1 88.7 14.7 15.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 16.2 16.6 19.5 1.8 94.8 91.8 15.1 15.3 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 16.0 16.4 20.1 2.3 97.1 94.6 14.6 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 16.6 17.2 17.9 1.7 94.7 89.2 15.0 16.0 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 16.2 16.7 18.4 1.5 93.3 87.2 14.8 15.1 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 14.9 15.4 16.2 1.3 89.6 84.2 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 16.2 17.1 19.2 1.7 95.0 89.1 14.6 15.5 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 15.0 15.3 18.2 1.1 84.5 79.7 13.8 14.4 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 13.4 14.2 14.9 1.5 93.0 86.5 12.2 12.7 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 16.8 17.9 20.6 2.3 96.6 93.5 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------