***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 19.3 0.9 72.8 63.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 16.8 17.2 19.7 1.2 79.8 68.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 18.9 19.4 19.4 1.1 77.2 67.4 17.0 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.3 14.0 17.2 0.2 57.2 55.0 12.2 13.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 15.3 15.1 17.1 0.5 65.7 60.2 14.1 14.7 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.6 14.1 15.3 0.5 64.6 59.5 12.7 13.3 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 17.1 17.5 19.7 1.1 79.7 67.2 15.4 16.4 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 10.0 10.1 15.3 0.7 69.3 62.5 8.5 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 16.4 16.4 17.5 0.8 71.3 63.5 15.5 15.9 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 16.3 16.5 15.9 0.7 70.2 63.4 15.0 15.4 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 16.2 16.3 16.8 0.8 70.6 64.3 14.4 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 14.4 14.4 16.3 0.8 72.6 64.3 12.8 13.9 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 15.4 15.4 15.6 0.7 70.0 63.6 14.1 15.1 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 17.2 17.3 17.4 0.8 72.8 64.1 15.7 16.5 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.8 18.1 18.2 0.3 62.7 55.7 16.0 17.3 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 16.6 16.5 16.4 0.6 67.3 62.1 15.4 16.2 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 17.5 17.7 19.0 1.0 77.4 66.8 15.8 16.9 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 14.8 14.8 15.1 0.8 70.7 63.8 13.5 14.2 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 16.9 17.2 19.6 1.2 80.3 69.5 15.1 16.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.7 13.5 0.6 67.2 60.2 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 16.4 16.5 18.5 0.8 71.4 62.7 15.1 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 16.3 16.6 18.9 1.0 77.1 66.9 14.9 15.8 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 16.1 16.3 19.3 1.2 79.2 69.8 14.6 15.5 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 17.0 17.3 17.2 0.9 73.7 65.5 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.2 16.3 17.5 0.5 64.1 57.8 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.8 15.1 15.6 0.5 63.0 59.9 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.0 16.2 18.4 0.7 66.9 60.4 14.8 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 13.5 15.4 17.6 0.2 59.1 54.9 13.8 15.2 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 14.2 14.8 14.6 0.8 72.3 64.1 11.9 12.9 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 17.0 17.4 19.8 1.2 78.7 68.6 15.4 16.3 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------