***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 18.9 0.7 66.8 60.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.7 17.0 19.1 0.8 70.7 63.1 14.5 15.8 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.9 19.0 19.0 0.8 72.3 63.2 16.3 17.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.0 16.8 0.0 52.0 51.8 12.2 13.0 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.3 16.7 0.2 55.7 54.9 12.7 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.2 14.9 0.2 56.1 54.2 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 17.1 16.8 19.1 0.7 67.6 61.1 14.9 16.3 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.8 14.7 0.3 56.0 54.0 7.4 8.1 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.7 17.1 0.4 60.9 57.2 14.2 14.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.6 15.3 0.3 57.6 55.0 13.8 14.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.7 16.4 0.4 63.2 58.4 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.7 15.9 0.5 62.9 58.7 11.3 13.0 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.9 15.3 0.5 66.8 60.7 12.8 13.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.5 16.8 0.4 62.2 57.6 14.5 15.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.9 17.9 0.1 56.5 54.7 15.5 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.6 16.2 16.1 0.4 61.9 58.7 14.1 15.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.4 18.4 0.5 64.9 59.0 16.0 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.1 14.5 0.3 58.1 54.5 12.1 13.8 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.9 19.1 0.9 72.8 64.7 14.9 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.1 9.2 12.7 0.0 53.1 49.6 8.1 9.0 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 14.0 15.6 18.1 0.5 64.2 57.8 13.8 15.2 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.9 18.3 0.5 62.0 59.3 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 16.1 16.4 18.8 0.9 74.0 65.5 14.1 15.3 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.4 16.7 0.5 65.2 58.7 14.6 15.4 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.6 16.0 17.2 0.3 56.8 55.6 14.0 15.2 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.7 15.4 0.4 62.2 58.1 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.8 16.2 18.0 0.5 61.5 57.6 14.2 15.4 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.2 17.3 0.0 52.7 52.6 12.7 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.1 13.8 0.2 54.6 52.5 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 17.2 17.4 19.3 0.9 71.5 63.7 15.0 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------