***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 0.0 20.1 2.5 92.5 84.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 16.8 18.6 20.2 2.5 93.0 85.4 13.6 14.5 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 18.7 20.1 20.3 2.7 95.4 86.7 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 13.7 14.3 18.2 2.1 85.3 81.4 11.1 11.9 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 15.3 16.4 18.2 2.3 90.5 83.8 13.0 13.9 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 13.6 14.6 16.3 2.1 87.3 81.5 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 16.7 18.4 20.0 2.3 88.5 83.4 14.6 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 9.2 10.1 16.1 2.2 90.1 83.6 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 16.0 17.4 18.6 2.5 92.3 84.8 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 15.9 17.3 16.8 2.2 90.5 83.5 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 15.9 17.6 17.9 2.5 93.3 86.5 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 13.7 15.6 17.4 2.5 94.3 86.8 11.8 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 15.4 17.1 16.9 2.5 93.9 86.5 13.3 14.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 16.9 18.1 17.9 2.0 86.0 80.5 15.0 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 17.3 18.0 19.2 2.2 86.7 82.4 15.7 16.7 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 16.6 17.7 17.6 2.4 92.7 86.0 14.2 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 17.4 18.0 19.3 2.0 84.5 79.9 14.9 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 14.4 15.6 15.9 2.1 89.1 82.8 12.4 13.4 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 16.4 18.7 20.2 2.7 94.9 86.5 14.2 14.7 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 10.2 10.8 14.1 2.0 87.7 80.1 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 15.9 17.5 19.5 2.5 93.1 84.8 13.7 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 16.4 17.3 19.2 2.0 86.3 80.2 13.9 14.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 16.3 18.0 20.0 2.7 95.3 86.7 13.6 14.8 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 16.7 17.7 18.0 2.3 90.6 84.1 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 16.0 17.5 18.5 2.2 86.6 81.7 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 14.7 16.4 16.9 2.4 92.2 84.7 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 15.9 17.3 19.1 2.2 87.3 82.3 13.5 14.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 15.2 15.8 18.7 2.1 86.3 81.9 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 13.1 14.1 15.2 2.1 88.2 82.0 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 16.9 19.1 20.4 2.7 95.4 86.7 14.5 15.0 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------