***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 58.2 47.4 31.9 82.2 49.6 44.4 24.0 47.5 79.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 44.6 39.3 30.3 88.3 52.2 45.8 30.4 38.0 53.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 30.2 44.4 33.7 84.0 49.2 44.5 31.9 45.0 61.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 33.7 52.5 34.5 84.6 48.3 44.4 31.9 52.5 70.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 25.9 43.5 30.8 78.8 44.6 41.9 36.0 44.7 57.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 62.7 53.5 44.0 96.8 54.4 47.5 40.0 52.6 59.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 44.6 39.1 29.8 87.3 52.2 46.5 31.5 37.9 54.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 92.1 84.5 43.1 91.0 52.4 48.3 53.5 82.0 100.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 26.6 38.7 34.1 79.7 45.7 42.1 28.1 44.2 65.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 44.2 58.0 42.8 85.1 48.4 45.2 41.9 58.8 93.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 24.1 34.7 30.1 80.7 48.8 43.6 27.5 35.0 52.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 62.0 57.0 32.8 90.6 53.5 48.0 34.8 51.8 81.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 44.0 40.4 32.0 85.2 52.9 44.3 29.0 39.3 43.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 47.0 62.6 49.3 89.6 49.2 45.3 48.1 62.8 78.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 44.9 41.2 30.7 91.2 56.1 47.7 17.8 38.3 50.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 21.6 35.4 31.0 83.4 50.5 43.8 25.4 35.3 42.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 49.9 45.1 30.0 87.3 52.7 46.1 35.8 44.4 62.2 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 41.1 63.5 53.1 90.7 51.1 47.2 46.1 60.5 72.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 50.2 41.6 32.7 89.7 52.2 46.3 31.4 41.0 58.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 40.4 58.1 57.5 100.4 56.2 51.9 42.5 56.5 63.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 32.5 48.8 33.3 81.0 47.7 43.8 23.6 51.0 64.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 57.8 51.8 34.6 94.5 55.8 48.6 44.4 50.2 68.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 54.4 50.0 37.0 91.1 52.3 47.0 38.2 49.1 61.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 39.9 57.4 44.8 86.0 49.1 45.0 35.2 61.9 77.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 57.3 45.7 35.1 81.5 47.3 44.5 29.9 47.4 53.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 36.9 28.5 26.9 89.5 54.9 47.4 18.8 27.4 49.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 56.0 47.2 34.5 81.1 47.8 44.1 41.7 47.4 61.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 52.3 44.1 33.4 87.2 50.2 45.7 29.3 44.0 56.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 55.9 75.0 57.0 92.9 51.2 47.8 53.1 73.0 102.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 49.0 42.3 31.0 86.1 51.0 45.0 29.8 40.8 59.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------