***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 8.4 13.6 7.8 98.5 69.7 51.4 0.9 3.1 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.8 7.1 102.6 68.1 52.2 1.0 4.0 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.2 23.4 9.0 116.7 73.1 52.7 0.5 4.5 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.3 30.7 9.6 127.2 75.9 53.6 1.2 5.4 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 0.9 20.4 9.1 132.3 76.4 51.8 0.0 2.0 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.8 26.9 12.1 141.2 76.5 55.8 1.1 6.3 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.5 11.8 6.1 84.6 64.6 50.6 1.7 4.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.9 24.0 10.7 125.6 70.4 55.4 3.4 11.6 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 0.9 24.2 9.8 132.1 75.0 50.8 0.2 2.0 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.3 29.2 11.3 126.6 71.9 53.3 0.4 5.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 1.4 23.2 8.1 136.0 76.6 53.9 0.2 2.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.5 15.9 8.4 134.6 74.9 55.1 0.0 2.5 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.3 14.1 9.5 149.6 80.4 56.5 0.8 2.8 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.4 35.1 12.9 115.0 68.2 52.4 1.9 9.4 31.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.3 16.1 8.5 141.5 79.1 54.6 0.9 7.5 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.2 13.1 8.6 139.9 79.0 55.2 0.5 4.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.0 10.7 5.6 75.1 61.1 48.2 2.2 5.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.3 14.7 13.7 118.3 67.8 52.9 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.4 19.7 8.2 113.2 70.7 53.3 1.9 5.7 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.2 11.7 14.0 116.8 65.7 54.0 2.1 6.9 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.7 18.8 9.0 124.3 72.9 52.0 0.9 8.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.7 20.2 7.4 91.1 65.8 49.5 3.8 6.6 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.7 19.6 9.6 120.0 72.3 54.3 1.4 8.0 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.9 27.5 12.2 122.8 70.8 52.5 0.9 7.7 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.8 17.1 8.9 108.4 72.2 52.5 0.3 10.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.7 25.6 7.1 146.6 81.4 56.3 1.6 5.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.0 15.8 8.0 93.3 68.5 51.0 2.8 6.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.4 27.4 9.4 136.4 78.0 55.5 2.2 5.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 15.1 23.5 14.2 113.1 65.3 52.2 6.7 10.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.8 13.4 7.8 106.3 70.2 53.3 3.2 6.3 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------