***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.5 20.1 8.4 92.6 67.2 54.9 2.1 4.1 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.2 12.4 7.6 88.4 66.7 55.2 2.5 6.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.7 8.3 84.7 65.9 53.5 1.9 7.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.8 9.4 7.3 84.7 64.0 51.2 1.0 4.2 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.8 11.8 7.2 85.6 65.6 52.0 1.5 3.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.0 9.8 11.9 114.5 68.6 54.8 2.9 4.9 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.6 8.8 7.7 90.8 65.5 54.0 1.4 3.6 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.1 13.2 10.9 104.3 66.0 54.9 3.0 8.4 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.8 14.4 8.0 85.5 62.9 52.4 1.0 5.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.1 10.7 96.2 62.6 54.3 1.0 6.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.9 8.1 7.1 95.2 66.6 54.6 0.6 3.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.5 21.1 8.6 107.1 69.5 54.6 0.0 3.6 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 2.4 6.6 9.9 118.5 72.1 56.6 0.1 0.7 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.4 18.9 13.9 104.5 68.0 56.5 1.7 8.3 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 4.5 9.3 5.8 83.3 66.3 51.0 0.8 1.9 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 3.7 5.2 8.6 104.1 67.8 56.3 0.2 1.8 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.0 10.6 7.8 96.1 68.0 55.1 3.0 4.3 10.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 7.9 11.5 14.2 104.5 62.5 53.9 1.3 5.3 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.3 14.8 7.9 86.9 67.2 56.0 2.7 7.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 5.9 9.9 16.5 125.3 67.8 55.6 2.3 3.9 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.2 9.3 8.0 87.2 65.9 53.2 1.4 4.9 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.5 8.9 103.2 68.7 58.0 1.0 4.3 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.3 12.0 8.8 86.5 66.3 55.6 1.3 8.9 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 8.7 12.4 11.4 92.3 63.2 53.8 1.7 6.1 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.7 8.9 93.8 66.3 54.6 4.2 6.8 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 2.8 6.3 7.4 109.3 70.8 53.0 0.0 0.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.9 9.2 94.4 65.9 54.3 2.7 5.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 6.9 11.6 7.2 85.2 64.7 52.3 0.1 4.4 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.6 15.3 15.4 106.7 64.0 53.5 4.4 13.4 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.3 7.8 85.6 64.9 54.8 2.3 5.1 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------