***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.1 5.1 9.5 76.4 56.9 44.6 2.2 4.3 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.1 14.0 10.7 100.1 69.4 50.7 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.3 10.4 77.2 56.3 46.0 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.7 14.7 10.1 74.6 55.1 44.8 2.8 12.3 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.1 9.0 9.3 67.9 52.9 44.3 3.9 8.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.4 9.2 11.7 81.1 55.5 46.6 4.5 8.6 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.2 12.0 11.0 105.8 72.8 51.6 2.4 4.3 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 27.8 30.8 12.8 86.5 59.4 49.1 18.8 22.0 34.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.5 5.5 10.1 66.1 52.5 43.3 2.7 4.6 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.0 15.8 13.0 81.0 57.9 48.2 7.7 14.8 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.4 10.0 9.8 73.5 54.7 44.4 2.8 7.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.7 15.3 9.2 75.7 56.1 45.8 6.6 13.7 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.5 8.0 64.6 52.4 43.3 3.2 6.9 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.3 18.0 14.2 82.2 55.4 46.6 5.5 12.1 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.5 8.4 70.8 56.3 41.6 1.0 4.6 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.3 13.2 8.6 68.9 52.9 43.2 5.2 13.0 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.6 13.6 11.0 103.4 71.3 51.9 3.0 3.8 13.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 20.1 22.2 15.3 85.4 56.4 50.1 8.4 17.5 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.3 11.0 96.1 66.7 50.6 5.3 7.2 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 22.1 16.6 101.2 62.5 52.8 7.2 15.1 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.1 9.4 10.2 70.1 53.3 45.6 3.5 8.7 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.6 14.8 12.0 103.5 71.2 51.1 5.4 9.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.3 16.3 11.6 91.1 63.2 49.6 3.9 8.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.9 13.4 12.8 74.2 53.0 46.0 5.8 12.6 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.4 11.8 79.3 57.0 49.5 3.4 6.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.0 7.6 71.4 53.0 42.5 3.9 7.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.3 9.8 11.3 80.7 58.7 47.2 3.1 6.1 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.9 8.1 9.2 73.1 56.0 43.3 1.5 5.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.8 24.0 17.5 91.2 57.6 50.7 14.3 18.5 30.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.3 12.5 10.5 95.2 66.1 50.0 3.6 7.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------