***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.9 11.1 6.2 66.1 54.2 42.4 4.3 10.2 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.0 11.3 4.9 60.6 52.2 41.9 4.8 9.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.1 12.9 6.0 66.3 54.3 42.5 3.3 11.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.9 7.4 67.5 53.8 45.1 3.8 7.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.5 5.9 5.2 51.6 47.1 38.6 2.3 7.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.7 6.7 8.4 69.4 53.5 46.2 2.2 6.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.2 12.1 4.9 62.1 52.6 41.8 6.0 10.3 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.5 13.2 8.7 66.1 49.4 42.8 8.0 13.3 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.2 6.1 6.2 58.1 48.6 39.9 2.0 6.9 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.5 12.3 7.8 56.0 46.3 38.9 6.8 13.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.2 6.1 5.1 47.8 47.4 39.0 4.3 6.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.9 7.0 6.6 68.2 53.0 44.7 3.5 6.3 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.5 4.7 44.6 47.7 39.4 2.5 5.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.1 9.8 8.3 63.0 50.9 44.6 5.8 9.8 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 5.0 5.6 8.0 90.6 68.4 55.6 0.6 1.4 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.4 3.8 5.2 50.4 47.9 40.7 2.7 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.1 5.6 69.0 57.4 44.0 2.7 5.1 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.4 11.3 9.9 65.7 48.5 41.0 9.0 11.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.5 8.2 5.6 64.5 52.7 42.4 4.0 7.9 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.0 11.9 10.4 67.8 46.9 42.5 8.9 12.3 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.0 6.1 60.2 51.6 41.1 5.2 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.9 12.2 6.2 76.4 60.5 46.4 3.8 9.0 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.8 12.4 7.0 72.4 55.8 44.1 6.1 10.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.5 14.2 8.3 67.2 52.6 44.1 5.9 12.5 18.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.0 5.8 5.5 52.7 49.5 38.0 4.1 6.1 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.8 4.9 62.3 55.3 45.4 2.0 4.7 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.2 5.9 58.6 52.8 40.6 5.3 11.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.0 6.3 7.6 74.0 58.9 49.3 1.9 5.6 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.7 12.6 10.0 67.0 47.6 42.2 8.0 13.6 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.8 8.4 4.9 57.6 49.9 40.9 6.5 8.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------