***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 28.7 29.4 30.5 0.8 65.6 62.9 28.0 28.5 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 28.8 29.1 30.4 0.4 60.7 58.0 27.7 28.6 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 29.4 29.4 31.2 1.1 69.2 66.1 27.8 28.8 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 22.4 22.5 28.9 1.8 78.3 74.7 21.3 21.9 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 30.1 30.4 29.6 1.7 78.0 73.0 28.2 29.3 29.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 28.3 28.6 27.0 1.7 80.3 76.4 27.0 27.9 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 28.6 29.0 30.0 0.3 60.0 56.3 27.8 28.3 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 17.6 17.7 27.3 1.2 74.5 69.1 16.5 16.9 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 29.5 29.9 30.1 1.8 79.1 74.4 27.7 28.8 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 29.2 29.5 28.3 1.6 78.2 72.9 27.7 28.4 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 29.6 30.0 29.7 1.6 78.5 72.6 27.6 28.7 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 28.6 28.9 29.1 1.4 75.7 70.7 26.8 27.8 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 30.0 30.2 29.0 1.7 77.4 73.5 28.0 29.3 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 28.4 28.7 28.3 0.4 61.6 58.8 27.5 28.2 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 30.3 30.4 30.7 1.4 74.6 70.9 29.4 29.7 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 30.8 31.2 29.5 1.8 79.4 75.0 28.7 30.0 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.1 28.7 30.1 0.5 63.3 58.8 27.1 27.8 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 28.1 28.4 26.9 1.2 75.1 68.6 26.7 27.4 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 28.3 28.9 30.7 0.7 62.9 60.7 27.3 28.1 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 24.0 24.3 24.4 1.0 73.5 67.5 22.4 23.1 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 29.5 29.7 30.5 1.3 73.1 68.8 28.0 28.8 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 29.4 29.1 29.9 0.5 62.6 58.5 27.4 28.4 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 29.0 29.3 31.0 1.0 66.7 64.3 27.5 28.1 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 28.1 28.9 28.7 0.9 68.4 64.4 27.2 27.9 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 29.7 29.6 29.1 1.0 70.1 65.5 28.0 29.1 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 29.1 29.4 28.7 1.4 74.5 71.0 27.9 28.5 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 28.4 29.0 29.6 0.8 66.7 63.1 27.7 28.3 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 30.5 30.8 29.8 1.8 78.6 75.3 29.2 29.7 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 23.5 23.9 25.9 1.1 74.1 68.3 22.0 22.7 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 28.6 29.1 30.5 0.6 62.9 60.2 27.7 28.4 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------