***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 29.3 29.4 30.7 0.1 57.5 51.9 26.9 28.9 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.4 30.6 -0.1 51.7 49.6 27.1 28.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 28.8 29.5 31.3 0.4 58.5 54.7 27.2 28.2 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.8 23.4 29.3 0.9 66.7 59.9 21.0 22.2 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.4 29.5 0.7 62.5 57.9 27.8 29.3 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.5 29.5 26.8 0.8 66.3 58.8 27.0 28.0 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.4 30.3 -0.2 49.7 48.3 26.9 28.4 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.4 27.5 0.3 57.0 53.4 16.7 17.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 29.5 30.1 29.7 0.8 64.8 59.0 27.2 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.9 28.2 0.6 62.7 57.4 26.7 28.8 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.8 29.4 0.6 61.2 56.6 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.8 29.2 0.3 57.7 53.7 26.5 28.3 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 30.0 30.1 28.4 0.6 62.1 55.5 27.9 29.5 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 28.0 27.3 28.0 -0.4 51.3 47.6 26.8 27.3 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.5 30.7 30.5 0.8 64.5 59.0 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.9 31.1 29.2 0.8 64.8 58.5 28.3 30.3 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.2 30.4 -0.1 51.2 49.8 26.5 28.1 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.2 29.0 27.1 0.3 58.9 54.4 26.2 27.7 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.3 30.9 0.0 53.4 51.0 26.6 28.1 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.7 24.3 0.1 54.4 51.2 22.3 23.4 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 29.2 29.9 30.3 0.5 59.9 55.5 27.3 28.7 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.0 30.2 -0.1 49.4 50.0 27.2 28.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 28.5 29.2 30.8 0.1 54.5 51.6 26.8 27.8 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 28.3 29.2 28.6 0.1 57.0 52.6 26.4 27.7 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.8 29.9 29.0 0.3 58.5 53.4 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.6 29.1 0.5 59.2 54.7 27.5 29.0 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 29.1 29.2 29.6 0.1 57.0 51.6 26.7 28.6 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.3 31.3 29.8 1.0 68.1 60.8 29.2 29.8 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 23.6 23.5 25.8 0.1 56.4 52.4 21.7 22.9 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.5 30.7 0.0 53.5 50.7 26.6 28.2 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------