***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 28.4 29.2 29.9 0.6 61.5 58.5 26.5 27.7 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 27.9 28.5 29.9 0.3 59.1 55.5 26.7 27.2 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 29.0 29.5 30.5 0.9 65.9 60.8 26.6 27.3 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 23.0 22.7 28.0 1.4 71.1 66.6 19.2 21.4 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 29.8 30.1 29.0 1.4 70.0 65.2 26.7 27.8 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 28.7 29.0 26.4 1.4 72.4 66.9 25.3 27.2 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.0 28.2 29.5 0.1 57.3 54.4 26.7 27.4 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 17.5 17.7 26.5 0.9 65.3 61.4 15.0 15.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 29.2 29.6 29.7 1.6 72.4 66.9 26.6 27.8 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.4 27.6 1.4 70.4 65.4 26.3 27.5 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 29.3 29.3 29.2 1.3 69.6 64.5 26.3 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 28.4 28.7 28.3 1.1 67.2 62.8 25.8 27.0 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 29.4 29.3 28.6 1.3 69.1 65.1 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 27.9 27.7 27.8 0.2 58.3 55.3 26.2 27.3 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 30.3 30.5 30.1 0.9 65.6 62.3 27.4 28.9 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 30.7 30.6 28.9 1.4 70.2 66.1 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 27.6 28.1 29.6 0.4 58.9 56.7 26.0 27.1 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 28.1 27.9 26.2 0.9 65.5 60.9 25.5 26.4 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 28.9 28.1 30.2 0.5 61.6 57.5 26.0 27.2 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 23.6 23.6 23.8 0.7 62.0 59.5 21.0 22.1 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 29.4 29.3 30.0 1.0 66.5 62.0 26.3 27.9 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.1 28.2 29.4 0.4 58.1 56.4 26.5 27.7 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 29.1 29.1 30.4 0.8 65.1 60.2 26.1 27.4 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 28.5 28.5 28.2 0.6 63.5 58.6 25.9 26.9 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 28.9 29.5 28.5 0.6 62.1 58.6 26.5 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 28.8 29.0 27.9 1.0 64.8 61.9 26.7 27.4 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 27.8 28.0 29.0 0.5 60.4 57.6 26.2 27.3 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 30.5 31.0 29.1 1.4 70.6 66.5 27.3 28.9 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 23.5 23.1 25.2 0.8 63.7 60.3 20.5 22.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 29.2 28.9 30.0 0.4 62.1 57.0 26.3 27.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------