***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 30.0 30.3 31.5 2.4 80.7 78.3 28.5 28.9 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 29.3 29.4 31.3 1.7 76.2 72.6 27.4 28.5 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 29.9 30.7 32.3 2.9 82.9 79.9 28.3 28.7 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 23.5 24.8 29.6 3.8 89.6 87.1 20.6 21.9 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 31.1 31.9 31.0 3.8 86.7 85.5 28.2 29.5 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 29.8 31.3 28.4 4.0 90.6 89.3 26.0 27.5 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 29.5 29.4 30.7 1.6 74.9 71.2 27.5 28.5 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 18.8 19.4 28.3 3.4 86.6 84.2 15.4 16.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 30.5 31.3 32.1 3.9 88.3 86.5 27.5 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 30.5 31.2 29.6 3.7 87.1 85.6 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 30.8 30.9 31.6 3.8 86.0 85.0 27.5 29.4 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 30.0 30.9 30.3 3.8 87.7 85.7 26.5 27.7 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 31.4 31.9 31.4 4.0 89.5 87.3 27.6 28.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 29.2 29.5 30.0 2.2 81.1 77.4 27.8 28.4 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 31.4 32.0 32.1 2.9 83.1 80.9 28.5 30.0 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 32.0 32.3 31.2 4.0 88.1 86.5 28.1 30.0 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 28.8 29.2 30.8 1.7 77.1 72.0 26.2 27.8 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 29.6 29.8 28.1 3.2 85.8 83.4 26.7 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 29.0 29.2 31.8 2.2 78.8 75.9 27.6 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 25.5 26.6 26.0 3.2 88.0 84.2 21.3 23.5 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 30.2 31.0 32.2 3.2 85.0 82.9 27.9 29.1 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 29.4 29.6 30.6 1.6 74.6 71.9 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 29.2 30.4 32.6 3.1 84.3 81.1 27.7 28.3 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 29.5 29.8 30.3 2.7 83.1 79.9 27.5 28.0 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 30.4 30.7 30.5 2.6 82.2 79.8 27.7 29.1 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 30.4 31.9 29.6 3.7 89.2 85.7 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 29.6 30.1 30.8 2.4 81.6 78.9 27.5 28.4 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 31.6 32.7 30.9 3.7 88.2 86.2 28.6 29.7 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 24.8 25.4 27.4 3.3 86.7 83.9 21.6 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 29.5 29.7 31.6 2.1 77.4 74.9 27.3 28.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------