***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.3 19.0 0.3 58.9 56.8 15.2 16.0 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.9 18.8 0.2 57.8 54.7 15.1 15.7 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 17.8 18.3 19.5 0.5 65.4 61.3 17.2 17.7 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 13.6 13.9 17.1 0.9 77.4 70.9 12.5 13.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 14.6 14.9 17.3 0.8 75.4 68.6 13.8 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.5 13.6 15.1 0.8 78.4 73.3 12.6 13.1 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.3 18.8 0.1 56.5 53.0 15.4 16.1 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 8.6 8.8 14.6 0.4 66.1 59.7 7.9 8.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 16.0 16.4 17.4 0.8 76.9 68.8 14.9 15.3 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.7 15.6 0.6 71.8 64.5 14.7 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 15.6 15.7 16.9 0.6 72.6 65.2 14.5 15.1 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 13.5 13.8 15.9 0.6 72.4 65.0 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 14.9 15.1 15.4 0.7 74.8 69.0 13.7 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.5 16.7 0.3 59.2 56.6 15.6 16.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 17.1 17.3 18.6 0.6 69.8 65.8 16.0 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.2 16.4 0.8 76.3 70.3 14.8 15.6 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.7 18.7 0.3 59.0 56.6 16.1 16.4 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.3 14.6 0.5 67.1 63.2 13.1 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.9 19.0 0.3 60.9 57.4 15.3 15.6 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.6 10.3 12.5 0.5 69.5 64.4 8.8 9.4 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.7 18.4 0.5 68.2 62.6 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.4 18.7 0.2 57.9 56.0 15.0 15.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 15.2 15.5 19.2 0.5 65.1 61.8 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.4 16.7 0.4 64.0 60.3 14.8 15.8 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.4 17.7 0.3 62.3 58.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 14.6 14.8 14.9 0.7 73.0 68.3 13.6 14.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.8 18.3 0.3 58.8 57.0 14.6 15.5 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 14.8 15.0 17.6 0.9 77.0 71.4 13.6 14.5 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 12.8 13.3 13.9 0.5 66.9 62.2 12.1 12.7 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.4 19.2 0.2 60.1 56.5 15.5 16.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------