***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.0 19.1 -0.1 49.5 48.9 15.6 16.0 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.8 19.0 -0.3 48.0 47.3 15.3 15.9 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.0 17.9 19.6 0.0 51.9 50.6 16.7 17.6 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.6 14.5 17.2 0.5 59.5 56.3 12.0 13.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.0 17.0 0.3 57.0 53.4 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.7 15.3 0.4 61.7 57.5 12.3 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.2 19.0 -0.3 47.7 46.8 15.3 16.3 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.0 9.0 14.7 0.0 52.9 48.7 8.5 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.3 17.1 0.4 58.6 54.9 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.0 15.5 0.2 56.7 52.0 14.4 15.8 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.7 16.7 0.2 57.7 52.1 13.8 15.6 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.8 15.8 0.1 54.6 50.4 12.6 13.7 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.5 15.2 15.0 0.4 60.0 56.2 13.9 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.1 16.5 -0.3 44.5 46.1 15.6 16.3 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.7 18.6 0.4 58.4 56.1 16.1 17.3 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 14.4 16.5 16.2 0.5 63.3 57.8 15.0 15.6 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 17.2 16.9 18.8 -0.2 49.8 48.0 15.7 16.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.4 14.5 14.4 0.1 55.3 52.1 12.8 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.0 19.1 -0.2 48.6 47.7 15.0 16.1 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.2 12.0 0.1 53.5 50.8 9.1 10.2 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.0 18.4 0.2 54.8 52.2 14.3 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.4 18.6 -0.2 48.0 47.5 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.3 19.0 -0.2 49.4 47.9 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.0 16.5 0.0 51.5 50.0 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.5 17.7 0.0 53.0 50.3 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.7 14.9 0.4 60.1 55.7 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.7 18.3 -0.1 51.3 49.6 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.2 17.7 0.6 63.2 58.7 13.7 14.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.6 13.8 0.0 53.6 50.6 12.0 12.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.2 19.3 -0.2 49.1 48.2 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------