***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 14.3 15.3 18.6 -0.3 44.8 46.1 14.6 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.4 18.5 -0.3 45.9 46.9 15.0 15.6 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 18.2 17.9 19.1 0.0 49.8 49.4 16.5 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.3 16.5 0.2 51.1 52.1 11.7 13.3 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.3 16.4 0.1 51.4 50.6 12.9 14.3 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 11.9 12.9 14.6 0.2 50.6 51.3 12.1 12.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.0 18.5 -0.4 45.5 45.7 15.0 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.4 8.3 14.0 -0.2 44.9 45.8 7.4 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.1 15.3 16.5 0.1 52.7 51.4 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 14.3 15.4 14.9 0.0 48.9 48.8 14.1 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 14.1 14.8 16.1 0.1 48.8 50.2 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 12.0 12.7 15.1 -0.1 46.3 48.1 11.9 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 13.0 14.0 14.5 0.2 51.5 51.6 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.9 15.5 15.9 -0.4 41.3 43.8 14.7 16.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.5 18.0 0.1 50.9 51.7 15.7 16.3 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.9 15.6 0.3 53.0 53.5 14.1 15.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.0 18.4 -0.1 49.3 48.8 15.9 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 12.5 13.3 13.8 -0.1 46.2 47.2 12.4 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.4 15.6 18.6 -0.2 48.0 47.7 15.0 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.4 8.9 11.5 -0.2 45.2 46.3 8.8 9.0 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.2 17.8 -0.1 50.8 49.2 13.8 15.2 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.1 18.3 -0.1 49.5 49.0 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.2 18.5 -0.2 48.8 47.8 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.0 16.0 -0.1 46.0 46.8 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 14.1 15.3 17.0 -0.3 45.5 46.3 13.9 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 13.0 13.9 14.4 0.1 48.4 51.0 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 13.6 15.3 17.7 -0.3 45.6 46.0 14.4 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 12.9 14.1 17.0 0.3 52.9 54.4 13.4 13.8 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 11.6 12.3 13.2 -0.2 45.5 46.5 11.6 12.7 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 14.7 16.1 18.8 -0.2 46.3 47.3 15.2 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------