***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.4 18.9 0.2 55.8 55.5 14.5 15.3 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.4 18.7 0.1 55.3 53.5 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.0 17.5 19.5 0.4 62.7 59.2 15.9 16.6 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 13.0 13.2 16.9 0.7 64.6 62.9 11.0 12.0 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 14.8 14.9 17.3 0.7 67.1 64.0 12.8 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.5 13.6 14.8 0.7 69.3 66.0 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.2 18.7 0.0 53.5 52.6 14.5 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.8 14.5 0.3 55.8 57.8 7.2 7.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 15.9 15.8 17.5 0.8 68.5 65.5 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 15.9 15.7 15.6 0.6 62.9 62.3 13.8 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 15.6 15.6 16.9 0.6 62.2 61.7 13.9 14.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 13.5 13.4 15.8 0.5 60.8 61.1 11.8 12.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 15.0 15.2 15.7 0.7 68.9 65.5 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.9 16.7 0.2 55.8 55.4 14.5 15.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.6 16.5 18.5 0.4 57.8 58.6 15.8 16.4 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 16.4 16.2 16.5 0.8 69.4 65.8 14.3 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.8 18.5 0.3 57.4 55.6 14.7 15.4 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 14.2 13.9 14.7 0.5 61.5 60.8 12.0 13.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.3 18.9 0.2 58.3 55.5 13.9 14.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.6 9.9 12.6 0.5 61.3 60.1 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.5 18.4 0.4 59.9 59.7 13.4 14.9 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.1 18.6 0.2 56.1 54.7 13.6 14.7 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.6 15.2 19.1 0.5 62.1 58.9 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.1 16.8 0.4 59.6 59.1 14.5 15.4 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.4 17.7 0.2 54.7 55.6 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 14.5 14.4 14.9 0.6 63.3 63.1 12.9 13.5 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.8 18.3 0.2 55.1 55.4 13.5 14.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 15.0 15.1 17.4 0.7 65.6 63.9 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.7 13.9 0.4 60.0 59.5 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.5 19.1 0.2 57.1 54.8 14.3 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------