***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 16.6 16.7 19.3 1.2 75.6 71.6 15.3 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.3 19.2 1.1 72.7 69.3 15.0 15.9 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 18.4 18.6 19.9 1.4 79.3 75.1 17.0 17.5 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 13.9 15.2 18.0 2.4 91.0 88.0 12.1 13.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 15.7 16.3 18.5 2.1 88.7 85.1 13.9 14.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 14.3 15.2 15.5 2.1 92.1 89.0 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 16.3 16.3 19.0 1.0 68.3 66.9 15.6 15.9 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 9.4 9.6 15.1 1.5 83.8 81.3 7.8 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 16.5 17.5 18.5 1.9 87.3 84.2 14.7 15.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 16.4 16.6 16.3 1.7 84.9 82.3 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 16.4 16.9 17.8 1.7 85.7 82.1 14.7 15.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 14.2 14.6 16.8 1.9 88.1 85.6 12.8 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 15.7 16.1 16.5 1.6 83.8 80.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 16.9 17.3 17.5 1.5 81.1 77.8 15.6 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 17.6 18.4 19.4 1.7 83.2 81.7 16.0 16.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 16.7 17.0 17.3 1.7 84.4 82.0 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 17.0 17.2 19.0 1.2 73.5 70.4 15.3 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 14.8 15.1 15.4 1.5 83.1 80.1 13.3 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 16.5 17.0 19.6 1.4 76.6 73.6 15.0 15.3 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 10.8 11.2 13.7 1.7 87.2 84.1 9.2 9.7 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 16.5 17.0 19.1 1.5 82.4 78.8 14.6 15.4 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 16.1 16.4 19.2 1.2 75.0 71.3 14.1 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 16.1 16.3 20.2 2.0 83.1 81.4 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 16.7 17.1 17.6 1.4 81.1 77.1 15.1 15.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 16.2 16.4 18.6 1.4 77.7 74.8 14.8 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 15.2 15.5 15.4 1.7 84.7 81.5 13.7 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 16.1 16.4 18.8 1.2 75.6 71.9 14.9 15.3 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 15.8 16.2 18.3 2.1 86.3 85.2 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 13.6 13.8 14.7 1.5 83.7 81.0 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 16.7 16.7 19.6 1.2 75.0 71.3 15.6 16.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------