***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 39.8 98.0 53.4 48.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 45.2 40.9 40.6 97.2 53.3 45.2 30.4 38.0 53.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 29.7 57.1 42.5 105.3 58.8 49.8 31.9 45.0 61.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 33.7 59.3 45.2 111.9 59.3 53.4 31.9 52.5 70.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 27.8 55.9 46.1 113.5 62.9 53.1 36.0 44.7 57.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 33.8 53.8 52.8 107.2 55.4 51.9 40.0 52.6 59.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 28.5 38.0 39.5 90.7 50.3 43.2 31.5 37.9 54.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 92.1 98.2 52.2 118.8 64.7 57.3 53.5 82.0 100.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 27.2 60.4 47.3 110.9 61.9 52.0 28.1 44.2 65.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 70.3 83.4 55.1 115.4 63.6 55.0 41.9 58.8 93.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 43.2 50.3 42.1 116.8 63.9 54.8 27.5 35.0 52.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 62.0 79.1 41.2 119.3 64.2 57.0 34.8 51.8 81.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 24.3 43.5 45.6 116.4 64.1 55.1 29.0 39.3 43.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 46.1 69.7 51.9 101.6 56.5 49.5 48.1 62.8 78.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 22.6 45.9 37.1 112.1 63.3 53.3 17.8 38.3 50.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 38.4 42.2 44.6 117.9 65.0 55.3 25.4 35.3 42.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 32.1 42.8 37.0 88.4 48.2 41.7 35.8 44.4 62.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 68.1 71.8 63.5 112.1 62.2 54.4 46.1 60.5 72.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 32.9 41.6 40.9 100.1 54.8 46.5 31.4 41.0 58.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 40.7 63.6 64.2 113.7 65.9 57.4 42.5 56.5 63.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 31.4 61.3 41.2 107.0 60.2 50.9 23.6 51.0 64.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 36.4 49.9 36.7 87.7 48.2 42.0 44.4 50.2 68.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 32.6 52.7 41.4 100.7 55.5 47.2 38.2 49.1 61.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 39.9 74.3 54.0 107.8 60.1 51.7 35.2 61.9 77.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 32.3 49.4 47.5 104.5 58.0 50.8 29.9 47.4 53.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 37.3 46.2 34.6 110.7 63.6 52.9 18.8 27.4 49.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 32.3 49.5 46.3 97.9 54.2 48.4 41.7 47.4 61.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 29.1 53.2 42.0 113.3 62.1 53.9 29.3 44.0 56.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 81.3 101.0 63.2 109.7 62.5 54.6 53.1 73.0 102.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 32.1 44.9 41.6 98.9 54.3 46.3 29.8 40.8 59.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------