***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.5 162.4 79.3 58.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.2 11.9 7.1 118.5 72.7 54.4 1.0 4.0 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.7 25.5 8.0 136.7 74.9 55.5 0.5 4.5 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 21.5 31.0 8.0 135.6 78.0 61.1 1.2 5.4 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.1 20.5 8.0 133.4 77.3 59.8 0.0 2.0 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.8 23.9 9.6 124.4 74.2 58.6 1.1 6.3 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.9 17.0 6.9 116.9 72.9 55.2 1.7 4.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.5 32.4 9.0 130.7 76.7 59.2 3.4 11.6 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.4 24.2 8.1 131.0 74.6 57.4 0.2 2.0 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.5 32.1 9.0 124.3 74.4 57.2 0.4 5.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 15.8 23.2 6.8 122.8 76.8 59.3 0.2 2.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 15.1 23.1 7.0 132.1 78.1 60.0 0.0 2.5 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 9.4 12.1 7.8 133.8 76.8 58.8 0.8 2.8 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.4 32.8 8.5 104.5 66.7 52.7 1.9 9.4 31.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.4 14.8 6.3 123.1 76.4 59.2 0.9 7.5 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 9.6 10.4 7.5 127.5 75.5 60.2 0.5 4.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.2 20.1 6.4 106.0 68.2 54.5 2.2 5.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 19.9 10.6 117.0 71.1 56.1 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.7 22.3 7.2 119.7 73.1 53.3 1.9 5.7 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 14.6 13.4 12.0 123.7 73.0 57.5 2.1 6.9 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.4 23.6 7.6 141.9 76.0 57.3 0.9 8.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.7 20.6 6.2 99.9 66.8 53.0 3.8 6.6 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.8 19.7 7.3 118.1 72.4 52.1 1.4 8.0 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.9 24.7 9.0 116.3 69.1 54.9 0.9 7.7 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.7 19.5 9.6 155.0 76.8 59.6 0.3 10.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 16.8 24.0 5.6 135.6 79.2 59.3 1.6 5.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.1 18.2 9.8 160.9 77.0 58.5 2.8 6.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 19.4 25.9 7.2 125.2 76.1 60.3 2.2 5.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.9 28.0 10.7 114.7 69.7 55.7 6.7 10.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.4 14.9 7.6 128.6 73.6 55.3 3.2 6.3 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------