***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.5 80.2 60.8 45.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.5 10.0 9.9 85.9 61.5 41.9 2.5 6.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.6 9.8 9.7 92.5 61.2 47.4 1.9 7.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.0 17.6 11.5 113.1 69.4 55.0 1.0 4.2 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.8 14.1 12.1 115.2 69.6 53.2 1.5 3.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.6 9.1 15.5 117.7 66.9 54.4 2.9 4.9 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.4 6.4 9.6 81.7 58.8 41.2 1.4 3.6 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 11.0 16.4 14.3 123.5 70.4 56.1 3.0 8.4 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.8 16.2 12.1 113.0 69.0 50.5 1.0 5.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.6 11.6 14.6 118.0 67.8 53.1 1.0 6.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.8 10.9 11.5 123.9 69.9 55.2 0.6 3.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.0 25.0 11.2 126.2 72.1 57.1 0.0 3.6 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 2.6 5.7 12.2 121.8 69.2 55.6 0.1 0.7 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.7 13.2 98.4 59.3 47.0 1.7 8.3 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.8 14.2 10.1 121.3 72.2 56.0 0.8 1.9 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.1 5.3 11.9 123.0 67.9 56.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 1.6 9.1 9.9 87.2 59.6 38.8 3.0 4.3 10.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.7 12.3 16.9 111.0 64.2 52.9 1.3 5.3 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.3 10.8 9.7 87.1 61.7 42.9 2.7 7.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.3 10.1 18.0 116.5 68.1 56.8 2.3 3.9 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.4 9.0 9.6 100.2 65.0 49.9 1.4 4.9 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.4 6.0 10.2 89.2 60.9 40.2 1.0 4.3 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.5 9.5 87.5 58.2 43.6 1.3 8.9 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.2 11.9 13.4 102.4 61.5 49.5 1.7 6.1 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.7 10.7 91.0 61.4 48.7 4.2 6.8 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.2 6.3 9.4 124.3 71.2 55.3 0.0 0.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.3 6.9 10.2 82.0 57.9 45.5 2.7 5.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.4 14.1 11.3 120.2 70.6 56.1 0.1 4.4 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.8 15.4 17.4 111.3 64.9 54.2 4.4 13.4 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.3 7.4 9.8 85.5 61.8 43.9 2.3 5.1 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------