***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.6 128.4 71.7 51.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 16.3 14.0 139.9 76.7 52.1 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.6 10.7 12.8 133.7 72.4 55.0 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.2 24.5 13.0 139.8 70.5 54.2 2.8 12.3 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.1 15.5 12.9 133.1 71.2 53.8 3.9 8.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.0 17.4 15.1 103.9 66.6 55.6 4.5 8.6 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.1 12.1 13.9 129.3 75.5 51.4 2.4 4.3 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 26.6 37.7 14.5 130.7 72.3 58.1 18.8 22.0 34.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.3 15.1 13.6 129.9 73.9 54.0 2.7 4.6 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 20.5 34.6 15.5 132.7 73.1 56.5 7.7 14.8 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.3 17.9 11.2 127.6 70.9 54.7 2.8 7.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 16.8 28.0 10.7 123.5 72.0 58.0 6.6 13.7 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.4 16.5 11.6 107.8 70.4 56.5 3.2 6.9 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.4 23.9 14.5 110.8 66.5 52.3 5.5 12.1 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.3 8.7 11.4 142.8 73.8 53.4 1.0 4.6 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 14.2 18.1 11.7 119.8 71.9 55.7 5.2 13.0 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.6 14.1 12.9 132.2 75.0 52.2 3.0 3.8 13.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 20.2 28.1 18.2 127.7 70.2 56.5 8.4 17.5 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.3 15.8 13.3 136.7 74.1 52.0 5.3 7.2 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 17.5 23.0 18.1 120.9 68.7 57.7 7.2 15.1 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.3 13.0 12.0 129.7 72.1 53.9 3.5 8.7 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.7 14.1 11.9 120.3 70.6 51.1 5.4 9.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.0 18.7 12.4 123.7 70.0 51.8 3.9 8.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.6 20.1 15.6 125.1 69.4 55.9 5.8 12.6 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.4 11.2 14.6 129.5 67.7 52.6 3.4 6.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.8 12.5 8.3 95.6 69.3 55.0 3.9 7.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.1 17.5 14.5 123.0 69.2 51.5 3.1 6.1 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.6 11.8 134.9 71.3 52.7 1.5 5.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.7 31.1 17.9 121.8 68.5 56.2 14.3 18.5 30.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.2 14.0 14.0 136.3 74.6 52.2 3.6 7.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------