***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 10.2 68.4 49.6 41.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.6 9.2 9.7 67.7 49.4 40.1 4.8 9.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.9 13.0 12.0 83.2 54.8 44.3 3.3 11.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.1 10.5 12.6 84.4 58.4 43.5 3.8 7.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.6 10.8 13.1 90.9 61.8 45.0 2.3 7.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.2 12.6 91.2 56.8 46.6 2.2 6.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.7 9.1 9.1 59.9 47.1 37.7 6.0 10.3 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.7 23.1 14.5 100.4 65.0 48.8 8.0 13.3 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.8 13.5 88.3 60.3 45.8 2.0 6.9 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 7.2 14.7 16.0 97.5 63.3 48.1 6.8 13.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.4 12.5 101.4 65.9 47.6 4.3 6.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.5 12.6 12.3 105.3 66.9 50.9 3.5 6.3 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 6.2 7.7 14.0 111.7 65.3 54.4 2.5 5.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.9 14.1 15.7 95.6 59.6 49.0 5.8 9.8 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 0.7 3.0 9.4 80.1 55.7 45.4 0.6 1.4 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 5.8 7.8 13.4 108.1 65.3 51.3 2.7 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 1.7 4.2 7.8 53.4 42.2 35.2 2.7 5.1 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.5 13.0 17.9 98.4 62.8 48.8 9.0 11.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.2 8.4 10.6 76.5 54.2 42.1 4.0 7.9 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.2 16.7 16.1 98.3 60.2 48.1 8.9 12.3 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.8 12.4 11.9 83.6 55.6 45.1 5.2 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 2.7 7.9 8.4 58.8 44.5 35.4 3.8 9.0 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 6.4 13.9 12.2 86.8 58.1 43.5 6.1 10.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.7 16.8 15.9 95.3 60.7 48.8 5.9 12.5 18.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.6 6.8 12.5 77.7 51.4 43.8 4.1 6.1 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.3 6.2 11.4 103.8 62.0 51.9 2.0 4.7 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 14.6 8.8 11.7 69.5 47.1 41.9 5.3 11.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.3 6.8 11.8 89.2 59.7 46.3 1.9 5.6 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.7 18.9 17.1 95.8 60.5 47.9 8.0 13.6 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 5.4 8.3 10.3 71.1 49.6 40.5 6.5 8.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------