***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 29.3 -0.6 45.5 44.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 27.3 28.1 29.4 -0.6 43.5 45.6 27.1 28.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 26.9 28.0 29.5 -0.5 47.5 46.5 27.2 28.2 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 20.3 21.1 27.7 -1.1 36.1 38.9 21.0 22.2 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 27.4 28.2 27.5 -1.0 37.6 39.7 27.8 29.3 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 26.1 26.9 25.0 -1.1 31.7 37.5 27.0 28.0 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 27.0 27.5 29.2 -0.6 42.0 44.7 26.9 28.4 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 15.9 16.7 25.4 -1.1 34.2 38.3 16.7 17.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 27.0 27.9 27.7 -0.9 42.0 41.5 27.2 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 27.1 27.0 26.2 -1.0 37.5 40.2 26.7 28.8 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 27.2 28.1 27.0 -0.9 38.7 40.6 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 26.5 26.7 26.7 -1.1 36.2 39.3 26.5 28.3 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 27.5 28.0 26.2 -1.2 33.6 38.3 27.9 29.5 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 26.4 27.1 27.3 -0.6 43.8 44.2 26.8 27.3 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 28.2 29.1 28.6 -0.8 37.3 41.0 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 28.1 28.5 26.8 -1.1 34.4 38.8 28.3 30.3 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 26.8 27.2 29.0 -0.6 41.4 44.8 26.5 28.1 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 26.2 26.3 25.2 -1.0 36.7 39.7 26.2 27.7 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 26.8 27.9 29.6 -0.4 45.4 46.9 26.6 28.1 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 22.1 22.1 22.9 -1.2 30.4 36.5 22.3 23.4 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 27.1 27.9 28.8 -0.7 44.2 43.0 27.3 28.7 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 26.9 27.7 29.2 -0.4 45.2 47.2 27.2 28.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 26.7 27.6 29.3 -0.3 46.6 47.7 26.8 27.8 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 26.6 27.0 27.3 -0.6 43.2 43.7 26.4 27.7 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 27.5 28.2 27.8 -0.8 43.2 42.3 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 27.3 27.1 26.2 -1.4 28.8 35.1 27.5 29.0 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 26.9 27.5 28.4 -0.7 43.3 43.4 26.7 28.6 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 28.2 29.2 28.0 -1.1 33.7 38.7 29.2 29.8 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 21.5 21.8 24.1 -1.0 34.2 38.9 21.7 22.9 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 26.9 28.1 29.5 -0.6 44.6 45.8 26.6 28.2 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------