***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 29.0 0.3 58.7 55.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 29.0 29.8 28.8 0.3 62.3 55.6 27.9 28.6 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.8 29.9 29.1 0.5 62.1 57.0 27.6 29.5 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 22.7 22.3 27.4 -0.3 51.1 47.9 21.1 22.3 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 27.8 29.7 27.2 -0.2 51.6 49.2 27.5 29.7 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 26.5 27.5 24.6 -0.6 43.7 43.7 26.8 27.8 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.2 29.7 28.6 0.1 60.1 54.0 27.7 28.8 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.2 25.2 -0.4 49.6 46.6 15.7 17.2 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 27.3 29.2 27.4 0.0 53.6 51.1 26.9 28.7 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 27.0 28.7 25.9 -0.2 52.2 48.9 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 29.6 29.5 26.7 -0.1 54.5 50.1 27.4 29.1 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.9 26.4 -0.3 50.4 47.6 27.1 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 27.8 28.5 25.8 -0.5 47.8 45.6 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 26.6 29.2 27.0 0.3 58.3 54.8 27.3 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 30.4 30.1 28.2 -0.2 51.0 49.5 29.2 30.1 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 30.3 29.7 26.4 -0.3 49.8 47.2 28.4 29.7 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 28.7 29.2 28.4 0.2 60.4 54.7 27.5 28.4 29.6 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 26.0 27.7 24.9 -0.2 50.7 48.9 26.6 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 29.0 29.0 29.1 0.5 64.6 57.7 27.3 28.7 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 21.8 23.1 22.6 -0.6 44.9 44.2 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.3 28.4 0.2 56.7 53.4 27.2 29.1 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.6 28.6 0.4 65.8 58.4 27.7 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.6 28.9 0.6 65.5 59.2 27.2 29.2 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 29.0 28.9 26.9 0.2 56.8 54.1 26.8 28.6 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.8 29.7 27.5 0.1 55.5 53.4 28.1 29.5 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 27.6 28.4 25.8 -0.7 47.2 43.3 27.8 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.3 28.0 0.2 56.8 54.9 27.3 29.1 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 28.9 30.0 27.6 -0.4 47.9 46.9 29.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 21.3 23.0 23.8 -0.3 48.7 47.7 21.8 23.0 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.3 29.7 29.0 0.3 62.0 55.8 27.4 29.0 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------