***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 27.3 -1.0 39.1 39.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 27.9 26.8 27.2 -1.1 36.9 39.1 26.7 27.2 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 27.9 26.9 27.5 -0.9 40.3 41.4 26.6 27.3 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 19.6 19.3 25.9 -1.4 34.1 34.7 19.2 21.4 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 28.5 27.0 25.6 -1.4 36.6 35.2 26.7 27.8 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 25.6 25.3 23.3 -1.4 32.6 33.2 25.3 27.2 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 28.1 26.9 27.0 -1.2 35.8 37.3 26.7 27.4 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 14.6 15.2 23.8 -1.5 35.7 34.3 15.0 15.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 28.2 26.7 25.8 -1.3 37.9 36.7 26.6 27.8 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.1 26.9 24.4 -1.4 36.7 35.6 26.3 27.5 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 28.2 26.8 25.2 -1.3 37.7 36.7 26.3 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 27.5 26.0 25.0 -1.4 36.7 35.0 25.8 27.0 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 26.7 27.3 24.4 -1.5 35.9 33.4 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 26.3 26.5 25.4 -1.1 38.4 38.3 26.2 27.3 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.0 26.9 -1.0 38.5 38.4 27.4 28.9 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 27.7 27.9 25.0 -1.4 35.2 34.5 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.6 26.5 26.8 -1.1 36.9 38.3 26.0 27.1 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 25.4 25.6 23.4 -1.5 36.9 35.3 25.5 26.4 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 27.8 26.6 27.4 -0.9 39.3 40.9 26.0 27.2 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 20.9 21.0 21.3 -1.6 33.5 33.9 21.0 22.1 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 28.4 26.9 26.8 -1.2 40.1 38.1 26.3 27.9 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.2 26.9 27.1 -0.8 40.7 42.1 26.5 27.7 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 28.0 26.8 27.2 -0.8 41.7 41.9 26.1 27.4 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.5 26.2 25.4 -1.2 39.0 38.5 25.9 26.9 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 27.0 26.8 25.8 -1.2 36.4 37.3 26.5 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 26.2 26.3 24.3 -1.7 29.3 30.6 26.7 27.4 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 26.2 26.5 26.4 -1.1 36.1 38.1 26.2 27.3 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 27.6 27.4 26.3 -1.3 34.9 35.2 27.3 28.9 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 20.5 20.6 22.4 -1.5 35.0 34.7 20.5 22.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.0 26.5 27.4 -1.0 37.2 39.7 26.3 27.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------