***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 0.0 26.4 -2.1 20.5 27.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 26.9 27.1 26.4 -2.1 26.2 28.2 27.4 28.5 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 26.7 26.8 26.6 -2.0 26.2 29.1 28.3 28.7 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 18.9 18.3 24.1 -2.6 18.4 21.2 20.6 21.9 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 26.8 26.2 24.3 -2.9 16.5 19.9 28.2 29.5 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 24.5 23.7 21.3 -3.4 11.7 12.6 26.0 27.5 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 26.6 26.5 26.1 -2.3 22.8 25.3 27.5 28.5 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 14.7 13.8 21.9 -3.3 12.1 15.5 15.4 16.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 26.4 25.9 25.1 -2.7 18.1 21.2 27.5 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 26.0 25.4 23.1 -3.0 15.9 18.8 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 26.1 25.5 23.9 -3.0 15.8 18.3 27.5 29.4 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 25.3 24.6 23.0 -3.3 13.8 16.5 26.5 27.7 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 90 10 0 100 26.1 25.3 22.9 -3.3 13.8 15.6 27.6 28.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 26.4 26.0 24.6 -2.5 17.2 22.4 27.8 28.4 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 27.1 26.3 26.4 -2.2 18.3 23.8 28.5 30.0 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 26.2 25.6 23.7 -3.0 15.6 17.7 28.1 30.0 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 26.3 26.1 26.0 -2.0 26.7 28.3 26.2 27.8 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 88 12 0 100 25.0 24.0 21.8 -3.2 11.1 16.1 26.7 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 26.5 27.3 26.6 -1.9 29.5 30.3 27.6 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 90 10 0 100 20.5 19.0 19.6 -3.5 7.9 13.3 21.3 23.5 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 26.7 26.2 25.9 -2.6 17.9 22.6 27.9 29.1 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 27.2 26.8 26.4 -1.6 33.7 33.9 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 26.6 27.3 26.4 -1.9 28.5 29.9 27.7 28.3 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 25.7 25.2 24.2 -2.7 14.9 20.6 27.5 28.0 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 26.7 26.1 24.8 -2.6 16.9 21.4 27.7 29.1 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 26.1 25.0 22.2 -3.7 9.8 12.4 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 26.6 26.2 25.5 -2.3 18.2 24.0 27.5 28.4 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 26.4 25.8 24.9 -2.6 16.8 20.2 28.6 29.7 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 19.9 18.8 20.9 -3.3 9.4 14.8 21.6 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 26.7 26.8 26.6 -2.1 26.0 28.4 27.3 28.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------