***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 18.0 -0.5 39.8 39.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.5 18.0 -0.6 40.6 40.7 15.1 15.7 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 17.9 17.6 18.1 -0.3 48.8 46.7 17.2 17.7 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 12.0 11.7 16.1 -0.8 24.8 27.9 12.5 13.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 12.9 13.5 15.9 -0.8 26.5 28.9 13.8 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 12.3 12.3 14.2 -0.6 26.3 31.5 12.6 13.1 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 15.2 15.5 17.9 -0.7 36.0 36.7 15.4 16.1 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 7.5 7.6 13.9 -0.8 22.0 26.8 7.9 8.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.6 14.9 16.3 -0.6 34.1 34.1 14.9 15.3 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 14.4 14.6 14.7 -0.7 30.0 32.0 14.7 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 14.2 14.4 15.5 -0.7 30.2 31.8 14.5 15.1 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 12.1 12.2 14.8 -0.8 24.0 28.2 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 13.5 13.6 14.5 -0.6 28.7 32.3 13.7 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.3 15.7 16.3 -0.4 40.6 41.5 15.6 16.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.2 17.5 -0.5 36.9 38.5 16.0 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 14.6 14.7 15.3 -0.7 27.5 31.0 14.8 15.6 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.1 17.6 -0.6 36.5 38.3 16.1 16.4 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 12.6 13.1 13.9 -0.6 29.9 33.0 13.1 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 15.8 15.5 18.0 -0.4 46.4 45.1 15.3 15.6 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 8.7 8.7 11.9 -0.8 22.3 26.6 8.8 9.4 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.7 17.4 -0.6 36.1 37.1 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.5 15.3 17.7 -0.4 46.3 44.4 15.0 15.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.0 17.9 -0.3 49.3 47.9 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.4 16.1 -0.4 40.2 41.5 14.8 15.8 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 14.3 14.8 16.5 -0.7 27.6 30.9 14.8 15.1 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 13.3 13.2 14.0 -1.1 17.2 19.0 13.6 14.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 14.7 14.6 17.2 -0.6 33.4 34.9 14.6 15.5 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 13.4 13.6 16.7 -0.7 29.5 31.9 13.6 14.5 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.9 12.2 13.3 -0.5 33.4 35.9 12.1 12.7 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.2 15.9 18.2 -0.5 44.3 42.1 15.5 16.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------