***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 19.0 0.0 54.2 51.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.1 19.1 0.0 54.9 53.6 15.3 15.9 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 18.0 18.9 19.2 0.3 60.1 56.1 16.7 17.6 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.7 17.1 -0.4 45.7 45.8 12.0 13.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.7 16.8 -0.2 50.4 48.0 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.3 15.3 -0.1 47.5 50.0 12.3 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.4 19.0 -0.1 52.8 50.6 15.3 16.3 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.6 14.9 -0.3 44.3 46.8 8.5 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.1 17.2 -0.1 53.7 50.7 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.8 15.6 -0.1 50.6 49.8 14.4 15.8 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.7 16.5 -0.1 50.9 50.2 13.8 15.6 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.5 15.9 -0.2 47.6 48.9 12.6 13.7 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.7 15.4 0.0 48.7 51.3 13.9 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.7 17.4 0.3 57.0 57.6 15.6 16.3 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.2 18.2 -0.2 45.9 48.6 16.1 17.3 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 16.2 -0.1 47.6 49.6 15.0 15.6 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 17.3 16.9 18.6 0.0 52.2 52.6 15.7 16.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.2 14.9 0.0 50.6 52.0 12.8 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 15.1 16.5 19.2 0.2 58.0 56.8 15.0 16.1 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.0 13.1 -0.3 41.5 46.6 9.1 10.2 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.0 18.3 0.0 55.0 51.6 14.3 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.8 18.7 0.2 56.5 56.7 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 16.2 15.8 19.0 0.5 61.7 59.8 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.3 17.1 0.2 56.0 56.0 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.3 17.5 -0.1 50.1 49.8 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 13.4 14.0 15.1 -0.4 38.8 43.2 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.8 18.2 -0.1 52.2 50.5 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.5 17.6 -0.3 44.4 46.3 13.7 14.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.5 14.3 0.0 50.0 52.5 12.0 12.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.6 16.4 19.3 0.1 56.4 53.5 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------