***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 18.6 0.2 59.8 55.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.9 18.6 0.2 57.8 55.9 15.0 15.6 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.4 18.7 0.4 62.1 59.0 16.5 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.1 16.9 -0.2 46.6 47.6 11.7 13.3 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.3 16.6 -0.1 48.5 49.2 12.9 14.3 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.9 14.9 0.0 49.6 49.5 12.1 12.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.4 18.5 0.0 56.0 53.1 15.0 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.4 8.3 14.7 -0.1 48.5 49.9 7.4 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.2 16.9 0.1 51.5 52.3 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 14.3 15.5 15.3 0.1 51.7 52.2 14.1 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 14.1 14.9 16.2 0.1 49.2 51.6 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 12.1 12.8 15.6 0.0 46.9 49.8 11.9 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.8 15.0 -0.1 47.3 49.0 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.4 16.9 0.4 60.3 58.9 14.7 16.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.7 17.9 0.0 52.9 50.9 15.7 16.3 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.4 15.9 -0.1 47.0 49.1 14.1 15.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.0 18.2 0.1 55.9 55.1 15.9 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.5 13.7 14.5 0.1 53.5 53.9 12.4 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.5 18.7 0.4 62.8 58.3 15.0 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.0 12.8 0.0 49.9 50.8 8.8 9.0 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.4 17.9 0.2 54.4 54.3 13.8 15.2 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.7 18.3 0.4 59.9 58.5 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.5 16.1 18.5 0.5 67.0 60.4 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.7 16.1 16.7 0.4 58.8 58.2 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.6 17.1 0.0 53.6 51.8 13.9 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 13.1 13.6 14.8 -0.4 40.8 43.7 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.9 17.7 0.1 56.2 53.2 14.4 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.8 17.3 -0.1 48.8 48.3 13.4 13.8 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.9 13.9 0.2 53.9 54.6 11.6 12.7 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.7 18.8 0.2 58.3 56.1 15.2 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------