***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 17.8 -0.5 41.7 43.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.2 17.8 -0.5 41.3 43.3 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 17.0 16.6 18.0 -0.3 48.1 47.5 15.9 16.6 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 10.9 11.0 16.0 -0.7 33.5 39.4 11.0 12.0 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.2 15.8 -0.7 36.1 39.9 12.8 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 11.8 11.9 14.2 -0.4 37.2 43.8 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 15.5 14.7 17.7 -0.7 38.4 41.0 14.5 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.4 13.9 -0.5 40.5 41.3 7.2 7.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.4 16.2 -0.5 38.5 41.9 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.5 14.7 -0.5 42.2 42.8 13.8 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.4 15.5 -0.5 39.9 42.8 13.9 14.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.1 14.9 -0.5 39.9 41.7 11.8 12.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.0 14.5 -0.4 38.1 43.3 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.5 16.3 -0.3 46.7 47.2 14.5 15.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.7 16.1 17.1 -0.4 41.4 45.1 15.8 16.4 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.8 14.5 15.2 -0.5 37.1 42.7 14.3 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.2 17.4 -0.5 41.4 42.6 14.7 15.4 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.0 13.9 -0.4 43.2 43.9 12.0 13.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.2 14.5 17.9 -0.3 44.8 46.1 13.9 14.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.9 12.0 -0.6 40.5 41.5 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.6 17.2 -0.5 40.1 43.1 13.4 14.9 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.4 17.5 -0.3 43.8 45.8 13.6 14.7 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.7 17.8 -0.2 48.4 48.7 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.1 16.1 -0.3 46.5 47.1 14.5 15.4 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.1 16.3 -0.6 38.1 40.4 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 12.6 12.5 14.1 -0.9 25.3 34.5 12.9 13.5 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 13.4 13.9 17.0 -0.5 39.3 41.8 13.5 14.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.6 16.6 -0.5 36.4 42.7 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.6 13.3 -0.3 44.7 45.4 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.5 14.6 18.0 -0.5 42.8 44.3 14.3 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------