***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 93 7 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.4 -1.8 13.9 16.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 13.9 13.5 16.3 -1.9 15.2 16.7 15.0 15.9 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 95 5 0 100 15.6 15.5 16.6 -1.7 15.5 17.1 17.0 17.5 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 11.3 10.8 14.5 -2.1 11.5 13.4 12.1 13.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 12.0 11.5 14.4 -2.2 10.0 11.7 13.9 14.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 98 2 0 100 11.4 10.7 12.3 -2.0 11.1 12.1 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 14.6 14.3 16.4 -2.0 14.1 16.2 15.6 15.9 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 97 3 0 100 6.7 5.3 11.9 -2.4 7.7 10.3 7.8 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 14.0 12.9 15.0 -2.0 10.9 12.7 14.7 15.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 13.8 12.6 13.1 -2.1 10.4 12.7 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 98 2 0 100 12.8 12.5 13.9 -2.1 10.1 11.8 14.7 15.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 11.2 10.3 12.7 -2.4 7.5 9.6 12.8 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 12.7 11.7 13.1 -2.0 8.6 11.6 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 14.1 13.1 14.7 -2.1 10.9 12.9 15.6 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 92 8 0 100 14.8 14.7 16.6 -1.4 19.2 19.6 16.0 16.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 13.8 13.0 13.7 -2.0 9.1 11.4 14.9 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 14.9 14.7 16.1 -1.8 15.8 18.8 15.3 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 97 3 0 100 12.0 11.1 12.1 -2.2 10.3 12.1 13.3 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 14.3 14.2 16.4 -1.9 14.8 16.6 15.0 15.3 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 7.9 7.0 9.8 -2.4 9.2 10.8 9.2 9.7 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 97 3 0 100 13.8 12.4 16.0 -2.0 11.7 13.4 14.6 15.4 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 13.6 13.4 16.3 -1.7 15.9 20.0 14.1 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 13.5 13.4 16.2 -1.9 13.8 15.5 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 13.9 13.1 14.5 -2.0 11.8 13.5 15.1 15.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 99 1 0 100 13.8 12.7 15.2 -2.1 11.5 13.1 14.8 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 12.6 11.4 12.0 -2.6 5.6 7.4 13.7 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 96 4 0 100 13.6 12.6 15.7 -2.0 13.5 14.9 14.9 15.3 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 12.2 11.8 15.3 -1.9 13.6 14.9 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 95 5 0 100 10.9 10.4 11.5 -2.0 12.7 14.6 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 14.5 14.4 16.6 -1.9 15.3 16.5 15.6 16.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------