***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 55.1 63.8 39.5 111.0 60.1 57.6 27.5 46.3 85.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 44.4 50.3 40.5 107.0 62.5 55.6 29.9 39.0 58.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 53.0 54.6 37.0 102.3 58.8 53.4 31.8 44.9 61.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 59.4 54.3 32.5 83.5 51.3 46.4 40.2 52.3 65.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 52.2 46.0 32.2 81.0 50.1 45.6 37.6 45.9 55.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 63.3 57.3 46.3 91.7 56.6 49.3 39.2 53.7 60.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 43.0 54.6 44.2 114.8 66.5 59.0 26.7 36.9 54.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 90.6 83.6 39.1 83.2 51.0 46.5 52.8 82.6 114.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 25.3 46.6 33.3 80.4 53.6 44.2 28.2 39.9 66.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 69.3 60.9 41.6 82.7 51.6 45.5 42.4 59.5 89.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 25.9 44.0 29.3 82.7 54.3 45.8 26.7 38.5 57.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 59.5 58.6 28.9 83.2 54.1 47.4 35.5 51.8 74.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 44.7 42.5 34.5 89.0 55.4 48.9 28.0 40.5 44.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 71.3 68.1 50.6 100.9 58.6 52.6 51.1 64.3 80.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 48.5 50.9 32.8 101.1 60.2 51.8 19.0 42.4 61.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 38.7 39.5 30.9 86.7 55.5 47.4 26.6 36.2 42.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 44.2 64.4 40.8 106.4 64.1 56.1 33.9 38.5 64.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 72.9 70.3 55.1 92.3 54.5 49.2 45.1 67.9 77.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 50.1 58.1 37.8 101.4 60.3 53.5 33.2 41.6 58.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 64.8 59.0 51.6 85.6 50.9 46.0 44.2 58.5 68.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 29.6 51.5 32.3 90.2 55.5 47.9 22.4 41.6 63.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 56.6 56.4 37.4 96.9 62.3 52.6 40.2 50.2 68.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 53.9 54.6 37.3 98.0 61.0 53.2 38.2 50.6 55.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 64.8 74.4 48.8 97.5 57.1 50.9 35.2 57.6 82.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 51.6 47.3 42.9 96.9 57.1 52.7 32.2 44.1 51.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 37.5 34.2 26.6 88.6 54.9 47.9 19.1 28.1 49.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 56.6 59.2 46.9 108.9 61.5 57.6 43.2 49.6 61.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 52.4 49.9 31.2 90.0 55.3 48.0 29.3 46.4 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 81.9 80.2 56.4 92.1 53.8 49.0 54.0 72.8 102.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 47.3 59.4 41.0 110.8 65.8 57.0 29.8 40.8 59.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------