***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 1.5 30.4 7.1 145.3 77.3 54.3 0.9 3.1 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.2 16.7 8.6 144.9 79.5 53.6 0.9 2.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.0 32.9 8.6 164.4 83.0 58.0 1.0 6.9 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 2.7 37.0 8.8 190.3 84.7 59.5 3.9 5.5 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.4 29.9 8.6 180.3 85.5 60.5 0.1 2.3 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.3 35.1 12.7 180.3 82.3 59.0 1.7 8.9 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.2 20.6 8.5 137.0 77.6 48.7 1.7 5.3 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 23.7 32.3 10.8 168.4 80.9 62.9 3.5 13.1 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.2 31.5 8.6 165.5 84.5 61.5 0.3 2.0 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 22.2 33.2 10.7 157.7 81.2 61.7 2.8 6.0 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.2 25.6 8.1 204.0 85.0 62.9 0.6 3.3 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 19.6 35.9 8.3 199.8 82.9 63.4 0.2 6.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.1 28.0 9.3 213.7 85.2 61.8 2.0 3.8 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 28.0 41.5 13.0 167.0 83.3 62.0 0.8 9.4 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.3 23.9 8.2 225.2 87.7 59.8 1.2 6.9 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.7 22.0 8.4 214.2 85.6 60.7 2.4 4.8 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.1 24.9 8.3 124.6 77.1 51.1 1.7 4.6 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.4 37.0 13.9 156.8 80.0 59.8 2.7 7.1 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.3 33.0 8.6 150.9 80.1 56.2 1.8 4.8 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.0 19.9 14.0 158.2 77.8 59.9 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.4 35.6 7.6 169.4 84.3 60.4 0.2 7.5 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.1 26.8 8.3 122.3 74.7 52.7 3.8 6.6 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.0 26.6 8.8 153.9 80.6 59.2 1.4 4.3 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.3 39.8 12.2 161.2 81.2 60.8 0.8 7.1 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.1 32.9 8.7 154.9 82.3 56.7 0.3 7.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.9 33.8 7.9 240.1 86.7 63.7 2.2 6.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.0 18.6 8.3 141.7 80.1 53.0 2.5 6.7 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.8 38.4 8.5 215.4 86.7 60.2 3.6 6.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 24.6 34.6 14.7 161.5 79.7 60.3 4.2 9.7 27.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.6 26.0 8.7 156.0 79.6 54.5 2.4 5.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------