***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.9 15.9 5.9 76.8 62.6 41.6 3.0 6.6 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.7 13.9 6.9 85.2 66.1 48.6 3.1 9.0 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.3 6.5 87.1 67.0 48.5 3.3 6.6 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.3 10.3 6.0 74.7 63.2 47.2 2.1 6.2 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.0 12.1 5.8 72.5 62.7 47.9 2.3 7.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.3 8.2 11.8 83.2 66.2 47.5 1.1 4.9 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.5 12.5 7.8 95.3 70.4 49.6 3.0 4.9 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.1 16.1 9.5 85.1 63.3 50.9 5.3 9.1 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.6 6.3 77.5 62.2 47.8 3.0 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.4 11.7 9.6 86.0 63.2 50.4 1.2 7.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.3 5.8 75.1 63.4 49.6 1.1 3.3 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.2 17.3 6.3 77.5 63.3 48.8 0.1 6.9 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 3.2 6.2 8.2 83.0 65.3 48.5 0.2 0.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.6 12.4 9.9 86.5 62.7 47.1 1.8 7.0 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.2 8.8 6.4 94.4 69.7 49.6 0.9 2.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 0.9 2.6 7.1 84.3 64.2 48.6 0.3 1.8 2.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.8 15.0 7.0 87.2 69.9 48.7 3.6 8.2 11.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.7 13.1 13.4 97.3 64.8 50.7 2.4 7.6 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.8 15.2 6.4 80.4 65.3 48.0 2.8 9.0 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.3 10.4 13.8 91.9 63.9 50.8 2.5 5.8 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.2 8.6 5.2 73.1 63.6 47.2 3.1 6.4 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.2 5.7 66.5 62.0 45.0 3.4 7.3 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.0 11.6 6.7 81.6 67.0 49.0 2.8 7.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.6 12.8 10.3 96.5 64.8 50.0 4.3 7.6 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.9 8.6 6.7 73.1 61.5 45.4 2.4 7.1 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.4 6.1 5.5 76.9 64.1 47.3 0.0 1.4 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.7 8.7 7.2 76.3 61.6 43.0 2.6 5.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.6 10.5 6.7 84.9 66.7 48.5 1.3 5.4 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.3 18.7 14.1 96.9 66.3 51.6 3.6 11.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.3 9.8 6.9 87.0 66.3 48.7 3.1 5.4 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------