***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.5 7.4 7.8 73.8 63.1 48.6 1.1 3.3 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.3 9.0 9.6 85.2 65.2 50.2 2.3 6.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 8.0 11.3 9.0 88.1 66.1 54.6 4.1 6.2 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 19.1 15.0 6.8 62.9 59.8 47.5 3.1 14.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.2 16.0 7.7 70.2 64.3 50.8 5.2 10.4 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.4 12.1 89.8 60.3 51.2 4.9 9.4 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.6 9.3 9.0 79.4 62.9 48.7 1.8 4.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.8 32.8 9.7 76.7 63.2 50.3 18.1 23.6 35.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.6 12.6 8.4 70.3 62.5 48.5 5.0 7.9 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 19.0 18.6 10.4 72.1 60.9 47.9 8.8 14.5 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.6 14.7 7.0 75.7 65.3 48.6 4.4 11.1 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.0 17.1 7.0 79.9 66.3 52.8 6.2 10.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.2 16.1 8.3 81.2 64.5 50.0 4.4 8.8 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 18.8 21.8 13.4 90.4 64.0 51.1 5.9 14.6 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.4 7.4 78.2 61.9 48.7 1.2 4.6 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.5 17.2 7.3 77.9 62.7 49.4 5.5 13.1 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.1 9.0 80.1 64.9 50.0 2.2 3.7 6.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 20.6 27.3 14.2 76.8 61.9 49.7 8.5 16.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.9 13.0 9.9 90.9 65.2 52.4 3.6 8.1 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 21.0 20.5 13.4 74.4 60.1 47.3 7.8 18.0 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 8.7 12.7 7.2 72.1 63.0 53.2 4.7 6.2 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.3 9.0 81.3 64.5 50.6 5.2 8.9 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.6 18.6 10.5 98.2 66.5 55.4 3.1 7.4 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 14.6 17.3 12.8 85.2 62.3 51.8 6.1 10.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.2 9.2 9.6 71.0 63.5 48.4 2.7 5.3 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.1 6.2 84.2 60.3 48.8 3.8 7.5 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.4 9.6 72.1 63.3 47.5 2.4 5.4 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.0 6.6 71.6 61.9 48.7 2.9 7.8 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.9 30.5 14.3 75.6 59.6 48.6 17.6 20.1 32.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.4 9.5 86.5 65.4 50.7 2.2 6.3 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------