***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 25.9 32.4 18.7 150.0 76.5 67.0 4.3 11.1 25.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 19.5 22.0 15.4 122.9 73.4 65.2 6.0 13.0 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.8 12.9 97.9 60.6 56.0 3.1 9.9 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.8 6.5 10.8 70.5 54.0 45.1 4.2 6.1 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.3 4.9 10.0 62.8 50.1 44.4 0.8 4.9 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.2 2.8 9.7 61.5 43.9 36.4 2.1 4.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 21.0 24.9 18.9 148.2 78.8 70.1 6.1 12.8 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 6.4 6.9 9.1 54.3 39.2 35.1 6.0 11.5 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.3 5.9 9.9 61.8 44.9 40.7 2.7 8.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.2 9.5 10.8 60.9 43.2 39.4 6.9 10.4 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.9 5.6 8.4 58.0 47.8 40.6 3.3 5.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.6 5.6 7.4 53.7 41.6 36.1 3.7 6.6 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.5 3.9 8.7 60.6 44.0 39.0 1.3 5.2 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.0 20.9 14.3 89.2 58.7 50.9 5.5 11.5 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.6 3.5 10.8 85.8 59.6 50.2 0.8 1.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.6 8.1 58.5 46.0 40.0 3.0 3.7 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 18.3 24.8 16.5 132.7 75.4 67.1 1.7 4.2 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 6.0 11.1 13.6 73.2 47.2 43.3 7.8 12.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 9.9 11.7 13.0 102.1 66.3 60.1 2.4 6.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 4.8 10.3 10.4 56.4 34.3 34.0 10.1 15.3 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.3 12.3 86.0 59.0 49.7 6.9 12.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 14.6 14.5 14.4 118.6 70.2 63.7 3.1 8.1 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 9.5 13.4 11.4 84.1 57.2 53.8 4.7 8.1 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.1 15.2 13.5 80.8 56.6 48.5 5.8 12.3 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 9.7 11.4 17.8 114.1 63.5 57.7 3.3 7.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 1.2 3.0 6.9 57.0 41.9 34.2 1.0 4.3 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 21.9 26.7 21.8 150.6 74.6 67.0 6.3 13.7 21.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.7 4.5 9.3 69.1 55.0 44.6 0.8 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.5 12.5 13.3 71.0 44.9 41.6 8.2 14.0 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 18.2 20.3 15.9 127.3 72.3 65.1 5.8 8.4 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------