***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 28.6 28.1 28.8 -0.8 41.6 40.6 28.0 28.4 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 28.8 28.5 29.0 -0.6 49.8 45.9 27.7 28.5 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.2 28.9 -0.8 42.5 42.6 27.8 28.6 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 20.7 20.8 26.9 -1.4 27.9 27.1 21.0 21.7 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 29.6 28.3 27.2 -1.0 37.4 36.0 28.0 29.3 29.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 28.0 27.7 25.1 -0.7 42.4 38.8 26.9 27.9 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 28.6 28.2 28.9 -0.6 46.5 44.4 27.7 28.4 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.1 16.9 25.5 -0.8 43.3 39.7 16.2 16.9 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 28.9 27.8 27.5 -1.0 38.8 38.0 27.5 28.7 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.2 26.1 -0.8 41.6 39.4 27.7 28.4 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 28.9 28.3 26.9 -0.8 41.9 40.0 27.4 28.7 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 28.1 27.6 26.7 -0.7 45.8 41.5 26.6 27.9 28.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.2 26.3 -0.7 43.0 40.3 27.9 29.3 29.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 28.3 27.8 27.0 -0.8 40.0 41.1 27.5 28.1 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 28.3 28.1 27.6 -1.6 17.5 20.4 29.1 29.7 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.2 29.2 26.7 -0.8 40.1 38.6 28.6 30.0 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 28.2 27.8 28.6 -0.6 48.0 44.9 27.1 27.9 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 27.6 27.0 25.3 -0.8 42.3 41.2 26.6 27.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 28.2 28.1 29.0 -0.6 49.6 46.1 27.3 28.1 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.3 22.9 23.4 -0.7 44.8 41.0 22.6 23.0 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.0 28.3 -1.0 36.4 37.3 27.7 28.8 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.1 28.3 -0.8 43.3 41.7 27.5 28.4 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 28.3 27.9 28.7 -0.6 47.4 45.2 27.5 28.0 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 28.0 27.4 27.0 -0.8 40.5 41.4 27.2 27.7 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 27.9 28.0 27.1 -1.2 32.3 32.6 28.0 29.0 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.3 26.3 -0.8 41.8 37.5 27.8 28.6 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 28.4 27.8 27.9 -0.9 37.2 37.7 27.7 28.2 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 28.4 28.6 27.3 -1.5 24.3 25.2 29.1 29.7 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.0 22.3 24.3 -0.7 43.4 41.6 21.9 22.7 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 28.5 28.2 29.1 -0.6 48.3 45.2 27.9 28.3 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------