***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 27.0 27.9 29.8 -0.8 42.6 42.7 27.2 28.3 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 27.2 28.2 30.2 -0.5 48.3 47.8 27.4 28.3 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.2 28.2 29.9 -0.8 42.4 43.0 27.5 28.5 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 20.6 21.1 28.0 -1.6 28.8 33.2 21.5 22.0 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 27.7 28.3 28.0 -1.2 34.8 37.2 28.2 29.8 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 26.5 27.0 25.9 -1.2 33.0 36.2 27.0 28.6 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 26.8 28.0 30.1 -0.5 47.7 47.3 27.2 28.2 30.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 16.4 17.1 26.4 -1.1 36.4 38.6 16.9 17.6 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 27.3 28.0 28.2 -1.1 36.4 38.9 27.7 28.7 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 27.1 28.1 26.9 -1.1 36.4 39.0 28.0 28.7 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 27.5 28.4 27.7 -1.0 36.3 39.4 28.1 29.4 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 27.0 27.3 27.6 -1.0 38.0 39.6 27.1 28.4 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 28.0 28.6 27.1 -1.1 36.4 38.0 28.0 29.9 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 27.0 27.7 27.7 -0.9 42.1 42.4 27.2 28.2 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 28.5 28.2 28.4 -1.7 22.3 30.6 29.0 30.0 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 28.6 29.4 27.5 -1.2 35.6 37.7 29.1 30.7 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 26.4 27.9 29.8 -0.4 51.5 48.4 26.9 27.9 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 26.7 27.2 26.1 -1.0 39.9 40.2 26.9 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 26.6 28.1 30.2 -0.5 48.6 47.3 27.0 28.1 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 22.5 22.9 24.1 -1.1 35.2 38.4 22.8 23.9 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 27.4 28.1 29.1 -1.2 36.2 39.0 28.0 28.7 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 27.1 28.0 29.5 -0.5 48.5 46.7 27.1 28.0 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 26.8 27.7 29.7 -0.6 48.0 45.6 27.5 27.8 30.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 26.8 27.4 27.7 -1.0 42.2 41.5 27.0 27.7 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 27.3 28.0 28.1 -1.3 34.4 37.1 27.9 29.1 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 27.7 28.1 27.1 -1.3 34.2 36.4 28.0 29.4 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 26.9 27.7 28.9 -0.9 39.3 41.1 26.9 28.2 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 28.7 28.3 28.2 -1.7 26.0 32.0 28.9 30.3 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 21.9 22.5 25.0 -1.0 38.4 40.0 22.1 23.2 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 26.8 27.9 30.3 -0.5 46.2 46.8 27.3 28.2 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------