***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.7 29.6 -0.2 48.1 48.5 27.2 28.8 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.2 30.0 0.1 52.8 53.4 27.9 29.2 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.8 29.7 -0.1 48.4 49.7 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.1 27.7 -0.9 32.8 39.4 21.1 21.6 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 29.5 28.8 27.7 -0.6 40.6 44.6 28.4 29.1 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 26.6 27.2 25.5 -0.6 37.0 44.5 27.0 27.8 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.1 29.8 0.1 51.2 53.1 27.7 29.1 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.0 26.1 -0.4 46.0 47.9 15.8 17.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.0 28.3 28.0 -0.4 43.4 46.5 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 28.4 27.7 26.7 -0.4 46.3 47.8 27.2 27.8 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.4 27.4 -0.4 45.4 47.6 27.8 28.5 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.7 27.3 -0.3 46.3 48.4 27.1 27.8 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 27.7 28.5 26.7 -0.4 44.3 46.7 28.0 28.6 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.4 27.6 -0.2 48.8 49.6 27.5 28.5 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 28.9 29.1 28.0 -1.2 27.5 35.2 29.3 29.5 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 28.4 29.2 27.1 -0.5 42.9 45.7 28.8 29.3 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.6 29.6 0.2 51.2 53.8 27.1 28.6 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.0 25.9 -0.3 47.7 49.1 26.5 27.3 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 28.7 28.5 30.0 0.1 53.4 53.2 27.4 28.4 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.5 22.8 23.9 -0.3 46.4 49.2 22.0 23.0 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 29.1 28.3 28.9 -0.4 43.7 46.3 27.7 28.7 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.0 29.3 -0.1 49.4 51.2 27.4 29.1 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.9 29.5 0.0 52.5 52.1 27.2 28.8 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 28.5 27.9 27.6 -0.2 47.2 49.3 26.9 28.1 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.3 28.6 27.8 -0.6 42.3 44.3 27.9 28.9 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 27.2 28.2 26.8 -0.6 40.0 44.8 27.9 28.6 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 29.1 28.7 28.6 -0.3 46.7 47.5 27.6 28.8 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 29.0 29.0 27.8 -1.1 31.2 37.5 29.0 30.0 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.9 22.2 24.9 -0.2 47.1 49.4 21.6 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 29.1 28.7 30.0 0.1 52.1 52.4 27.6 28.7 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------