***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 28.2 27.2 28.3 -0.8 41.8 41.8 26.1 27.5 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 27.8 27.2 28.6 -0.5 47.2 45.8 26.8 27.3 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 27.8 26.5 28.4 -0.7 41.6 43.1 26.2 27.2 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 19.4 18.7 26.6 -1.4 30.1 35.1 18.9 21.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 26.9 26.7 26.6 -1.1 34.9 38.3 26.5 28.2 29.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 27.3 25.9 24.6 -0.7 38.4 41.7 25.6 26.5 28.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 28.3 27.2 28.5 -0.6 46.2 45.1 26.7 27.9 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.6 15.2 25.1 -0.8 40.7 42.2 14.7 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 26.5 26.3 26.8 -1.0 35.2 39.6 26.2 27.6 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.2 26.6 25.6 -0.9 37.7 41.3 25.9 27.6 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 28.1 26.6 26.2 -0.9 36.5 41.2 26.4 27.5 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 27.8 26.1 26.2 -0.7 40.9 43.0 25.7 27.2 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 28.4 27.4 25.7 -0.7 40.2 42.6 27.1 27.8 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 26.1 26.5 26.5 -0.6 45.0 44.9 26.4 27.1 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 27.7 27.1 27.0 -1.5 29.4 32.7 27.3 29.2 29.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 29.1 27.8 26.1 -0.9 37.6 40.5 27.7 28.4 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 27.4 26.9 28.3 -0.5 49.4 46.7 25.9 26.9 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 27.1 26.1 24.9 -0.7 42.4 44.0 25.3 26.6 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 27.3 26.7 28.6 -0.5 46.2 46.2 26.2 26.8 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.5 21.7 22.9 -0.6 44.5 44.7 21.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 28.5 26.4 27.7 -1.0 36.1 39.7 26.3 27.9 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 28.0 27.3 28.0 -0.6 44.1 45.5 26.4 27.6 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 27.7 26.7 28.2 -0.5 45.0 45.9 26.2 27.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.5 26.3 26.5 -0.7 41.8 44.0 26.1 27.0 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 26.9 26.5 26.6 -1.1 37.1 38.8 26.4 28.4 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 28.1 26.9 25.7 -0.8 39.2 42.1 26.6 27.4 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 28.1 26.5 27.4 -0.9 41.7 41.4 26.1 27.7 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 27.7 27.4 26.8 -1.4 31.3 33.9 27.4 29.1 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.4 23.9 -0.6 44.4 45.2 21.1 21.6 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 27.6 26.8 28.7 -0.6 45.4 45.0 26.6 27.0 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------