***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 28.0 28.6 27.4 -1.5 32.2 34.2 28.6 29.5 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.4 27.4 -1.5 36.3 36.0 27.9 28.8 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.0 27.7 -1.3 34.4 37.6 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 19.8 19.7 25.3 -1.7 30.0 32.4 20.3 21.7 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 30.3 28.2 26.3 -1.2 37.4 39.4 27.8 30.0 31.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 28.0 27.5 24.5 -0.4 49.7 46.4 26.1 27.5 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 27.3 27.4 27.1 -1.7 31.9 32.9 27.6 29.0 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.2 16.3 24.6 -0.9 43.7 42.0 15.6 16.7 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 29.7 27.2 27.0 -1.2 34.6 38.5 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.0 25.4 -1.0 40.3 40.6 27.0 28.5 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.5 28.7 26.2 -0.9 44.7 42.2 27.1 29.1 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 28.1 27.5 25.8 -0.7 47.7 44.2 26.3 27.7 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.2 25.8 -0.7 49.2 44.1 27.4 29.2 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.1 26.0 -1.4 35.0 36.2 27.6 28.6 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 27.4 26.8 26.7 -2.1 23.2 25.9 28.0 29.5 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 30.3 29.2 26.2 -0.8 47.6 43.4 27.9 29.9 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.4 26.7 26.7 -1.7 30.9 32.1 27.3 28.1 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.5 26.7 24.4 -1.1 38.2 39.9 26.0 28.2 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.6 27.7 27.4 -1.4 36.7 37.1 27.4 28.3 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 23.9 22.4 22.6 -0.8 42.8 41.5 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 27.2 27.7 27.6 -1.4 33.3 36.5 27.6 28.9 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 26.5 27.0 26.4 -1.9 28.6 29.4 28.1 28.7 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.9 27.6 27.3 -1.4 35.6 37.1 27.1 28.6 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 28.6 27.1 26.1 -1.3 35.5 37.9 26.9 28.3 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 26.9 26.8 26.0 -1.8 27.8 30.8 27.5 28.8 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.5 25.4 -0.7 48.8 43.8 26.9 28.5 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 27.0 27.4 26.6 -1.6 29.5 31.8 27.5 28.9 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 27.4 27.6 26.2 -1.7 31.5 32.5 27.8 29.6 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.8 21.7 23.6 -1.0 39.4 40.2 21.3 23.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.0 27.8 27.5 -1.5 34.8 36.0 27.4 28.8 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------